Winner: Sebastian Szalay
Confidence Score: 65Sebastian Szalay is the only fighter in this matchup with any UFC experience or recorded stats, having a 2-0 record and nearly 8 minutes of average fight time. He has shown solid striking defense (72%) and takedown defense (85%), which are both above average for debuting featherweights. While he has not finished fights or scored knockouts/submissions, his defensive numbers and experience in the UFC system give him a significant edge over Keiichiro Nakamura, who has no recorded professional MMA stats, no debut, and no known fighting style or attributes. Historically, fighters debuting with no experience or data against opponents with even minimal UFC experience win less than 30% of the time. Therefore, Szalay is the statistically safer pick, though the confidence is moderate due to limited data on both fighters.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 event page.
