Winner: Aaron Tau
Confidence Score: 77Aaron Tau is the clear pick due to his measurable UFC experience and demonstrated ability to perform under the lights. Tau has a 2-1 UFC record with solid defensive metrics for a flyweight: 60% significant strike defense and 65% takedown defense. He has shown he can go the distance (average fight time 11:16), which is valuable in debutant matchups. Namsrai Batbayar, by contrast, is making his UFC debut with no available data on striking, grappling, or finishing ability, and no recent fight history. Historically, debuting fighters with no major organizational experience or statistical record have a low win rate against even modestly proven UFC competitors, especially when the experienced fighter is in his early 30s and not showing signs of decline. Tau's statistical edge and proven durability make him the logical and data-driven favorite.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 event page.
