Winner: Ricky Turcios
Confidence Score: 65Ricky Turcios has a slight edge in this matchup due to a combination of experience, durability, and activity. He holds a better significant strike accuracy (40% vs 37%), a longer average fight time (suggesting greater cardio and durability), and a notable reach advantage (71" arm reach vs 69"). While neither fighter is highly successful with takedowns, Turcios attempts more and has a freestyle background, which often translates into more diverse grappling and scrambling ability. Smotherman has more knockout wins, but his takedown defense (63%) and lack of offensive wrestling (0% accuracy) could be exploited by Turcios, who is accustomed to longer, more competitive fights. Both have recent losses to tough competition, but Turcios' experience and ability to go the distance give him the edge in a likely close decision.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.
