Dan Hooker vs Saint-Denis: UFC 325 Odds & AI Pick

Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis fight analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated lightweight bout between Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint-Denis is set to kick off the Main Card of UFC 325 at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney Olympic Park, New South Wales, Australia. The action will begin on February 1, 2026, with the preliminary card starting at 2:00 AM GMT and this featured matchup slated to commence around 3:45 AM GMT. This clash between two ranked lightweights promises fireworks inside the Octagon as each man looks to climb the divisional ladder.

Event Details

• Event: UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes
• Venue: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW, Australia
• Date & Time: February 1, 2026, Main Card begins at 2:00 AM GMT; Hooker vs Saint-Denis expected at 3:45 AM GMT
• Stage: Main Card (Lightweight Division)

The Fighters

Benoit Saint-Denis (29, #8 in the UFC Lightweight rankings) enters this contest on a three-fight winning streak, most recently dispatching Beneil Dariush via first-round TKO in November 2025. The Frenchman boasts an impressive 16–3–0 professional record, with a stark grappling edge—11 submission victories—and a heavy hands repertoire reflected in five knockouts. Saint-Denis’ blend of high‐pace striking (55% significant strike accuracy) and relentless ground pressure (38% takedown accuracy, 71% takedown defense) has made him one of the division’s most dynamic rising stars.

Dan Hooker (35, #6 in the UFC Lightweight rankings) brings veteran experience and a rugged 24–13–0 record into the cage. The New Zealander is known for his durable chin, heavy leg kicks, and iron‐fisted stand-up game, accumulating 11 knockouts and seven submissions over the course of his decade-long UFC tenure. Hooker’s average fight time sits at just over ten minutes, a testament to his willingness to mix it up for the full 15 minutes when necessary. Despite coming off a submission loss to Arman Tsarukyan in late 2025, Hooker remains a fearsome competitor capable of turning any moment in his favor.

Betting Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite: Benoit Saint-Denis (−300 to −320 across major sportsbooks)
• Underdog: Dan Hooker (+215 to +260 across major sportsbooks)

The odds reflect Saint-Denis as the clear favorite, largely due to his technical grappling acumen and current momentum inside the division. Hooker, while undervalued on the boards, presents an intriguing live‐dog wager for bettors banking on veteran savvy, knockout power, and the potential to neutralize Saint-Denis’ wrestling exchanges.

As the pair square off in Sydney, this fight represents a pivotal juncture for both men: Saint-Denis aims to break into the top 5 and solidify himself as a title contender, whereas Hooker looks to snap his two-fight skid and reaffirm his status among the elite lightweights. Expect a clash of styles—French aggression and submission creativity versus Kiwi toughness and striking volume—that could easily tilt in favor of the more versatile or the more battle-tested competitor on fight night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Benoit Saint-Denis Profile

Age: 29
Country: France
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a grappling emphasis and high-pace striking

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs Beneil Dariush (11/2025) – KO/TKO in Round 1 (0:16)
• Win vs Mauricio Ruffy (09/2025) – Submission in Round 2 (2:56)
• Win vs Kyle Prepolec (05/2025) – Submission in Round 2 (2:35)
• Loss vs Renato Moicano (09/2024) – TKO (doctor’s stoppage) Round 2 (5:00)
• Loss vs Dustin Poirier (03/2024) – KO/TKO in Round 2 (2:32)

Saint-Denis has rattled off three consecutive finishes, showcasing rapid submission transitions and increasingly heavy hands. His back-to-back KO and submissions speak to a fighter peaking in confidence and technical polish.

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: 19 of 23 wins by stoppage (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 8 first-round finishes)
• Striking Accuracy: 55% significant strike connect rate, allowing him to land sharp shots and open submission opportunities
• Grappling Versatility: 38% takedown accuracy combined with 71% takedown defense; excellent scramble ability once the fight hits the mat

Vulnerabilities

• Strike Defense: 43% significant strike defense—Saint-Denis has been hurt by power punchers (see Poirier KO)
• Experience Gap: UFC debut in 2021, 16 total UFC rounds vs. veterans with deeper five-round campaigns
• Durability Concerns: Two recent TKO losses suggest potential susceptibility to damage accumulation

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Dan Hooker Profile

Age: 35
Country: New Zealand
Fighting Style: Veteran MMA striker with Muay Thai pedigree and solid submission chops

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Loss vs Arman Tsarukyan (11/2025) – Submission (rear-naked choke) Round 2 (3:34)
• Win vs Mateusz Gamrot (08/2024) – Split decision, 3 rounds
• Win vs Jalin Turner (07/2023) – Split decision, 3 rounds
• Win vs Claudio Puelles (11/2022) – KO/TKO in Round 2 (4:06)
• Loss vs Arnold Allen (03/2022) – KO/TKO in Round 1 (2:33)

Hooker has alternated high-level wins and tough defeats, demonstrating resilience in split-decision wars and heavy finishes when the timing is right.

Strengths

• Durable Chin & Cardio: 24 professional wins across 37 fights; average fight time 10:09—capable of grinding deep into later rounds
• Defensive Acumen: 51% significant strike defense and 77% takedown defense frustrate opponents’ offense
• Striking Variety: 48% strike accuracy with heavy leg kicks and counters, 11 career knockouts

Vulnerabilities

• Takedown Offense: 34% accuracy on his own takedown attempts, limited ground-and-pound threat vs elite grapplers
• Submission Defense: Loss to Tsarukyan highlights potential lapses when engaging on the mat
• Declining Finishing Rate: Only one finish in past four outings, raising questions about power carry and finishing instincts

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Styles Clash & Tactical Breakdown

• Grapple vs. Grapple-Defense: Saint-Denis will look to drag Hooker into scrambles where 11 submissions have ended fights. Hooker’s 77% takedown defense and strong scrambles make this a pivotal battleground.
• Striking Exchanges: Benoit’s 55% accuracy vs. Hooker’s 51% defense suggests he can land clean shots, but Hooker’s experience in high-volume striking wars could blunt those combinations.
• Pace & Endurance: Saint-Denis’ 6:55 average fight time indicates a penchant for early finishes. Hooker’s proven cardio and toughness could force Benoit into unfamiliar later-round territory.

Ultimately, the matchup pits a surging submission artist with growing power against a battle-tested striker whose defensive tools and endurance could neutralize the offense. Victory may hinge on who imposes their game plan first: Saint-Denis’ wrestling and transitions or Hooker’s defensive pressure and counter-striking.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Summary

The betting market has clearly positioned Benoit Saint-Denis as the favorite and Dan Hooker as the underdog in this lightweight clash. Across major sportsbooks, the lines currently sit as follows:

• Benoit Saint-Denis (Favorite)
  • Caesars: −300
  • DraftKings: −305
  • FanDuel: −295
  • Bovada: −320
  • BetOnline.ag: −300

• Dan Hooker (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +215
  • DraftKings: +245
  • FanDuel: +220
  • Bovada: +260
  • BetOnline.ag: +250

Best sportsbook to back the favorite: FanDuel at −295 (lowest juice on Benoit).
Best sportsbook to back the underdog: Bovada at +260 (highest return on Hooker).

Line Movement & Large Swings

A review of the odds history reveals significant movement on both sides as bettors and sharps have weighed in:

• Saint-Denis opened around −250 on DraftKings (Jan. 3) and swiftly moved to −285 (Jan. 6), with further dips to −298 (Jan. 7) and a peak near −310 (Jan. 14). On Bovada, his line oscillated repeatedly between −270 and −290 through Jan. 7 before settling around −300 across most books.

• Hooker debuted around +205 on DraftKings (Jan. 3), climbing to +230 (Jan. 6), +240 (Jan. 7) and +245 (Jan. 14). Bovada’s underdog line flipped between +220 and +240 multiple times on Jan. 6–7, ultimately settling at +260—the most generous price available.

The biggest swings came in early January on Bovada, where Benoit’s line jumped and retracted twenty-plus times in 48 hours, and Hooker’s line mirrored that volatility. These fluctuations indicate heavy action and dynamic repricing by sportsbooks reacting to betting volume.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you were to risk $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what you’d collect if your pick wins:

• Benoit Saint-Denis at −295 (FanDuel)
  • Net profit: $338.98
  • Total payout: $1,338.98
  • Implied probability: ≈ 75%

• Dan Hooker at +260 (Bovada)
  • Net profit: $2,600
  • Total payout: $3,600
  • Implied probability: ≈ 28%

For comparison, a $1,000 wager on Benoit at the sharpest price of −320 (Bovada) would net $312.50, while a $1,000 bet on Hooker at Caesars (+215) returns $2,150. These figures underscore the market’s view: Saint-Denis is heavily favored, while Hooker carries the high‐upside underdog appeal.

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The odds landscape for Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis showcases a clear favorite riding strong momentum, contrasted by a seasoned veteran offering substantial value for those willing to back the upset. Traders and bettors alike will want to monitor further line movement up until fight time, as any late shifts could signal sharp money or insider confidence in one camp.