Winner: Rafael Fiziev
Confidence Score: 70Rafael Fiziev holds a significant experience edge and has consistently competed against elite competition in the UFC's lightweight division. His Muay Thai base is complemented by top-tier takedown defense (90%) and an excellent takedown accuracy (73%), giving him more paths to victory than Mauricio Ruffy, who is a dangerous striker but has shown vulnerability on the ground (recent submission loss to Benoit Saint Denis). While Ruffy has knockout power and a reach advantage, Fiziev's striking defense, durability, and proven ability to go deep into fights against ranked opponents make him the more reliable pick. Historically, fighters with Fiziev's profile—elite striking, high-level experience, and strong defensive metrics—win the majority of these matchups, especially when facing a less-experienced, single-dimensional knockout artist.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.
