UFC 325: Micallef vs Elliott Analysis, Odds & AI Pick

Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott Fight Analysis

Introduction

The welterweight clash between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott is set to ignite the Octagon on February 1, 2026, as part of the preliminary card for UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes. The bout takes place at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney Olympic Park, New South Wales, Australia, with the opener scheduled to begin at approximately 2:15 AM UTC (Saturday, February 1st local time). This early-evening matchup will kick off a night of high-octane action, showcasing two rising talents eager to make their mark on the deepest division in mixed martial arts.

Fight Details

• Event: UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes (Preliminary Card)
• Date: February 1, 2026
• Time: 2:15 AM UTC
• Venue: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW, Australia

Heading into this contest, Jonathan Micallef carries the favorite’s tag across the majority of sportsbooks. The Australian standout, boasting an 8-1-0 professional record under the UFC banner, is listed around -135 to -148 on the money line. His polished blend of wrestling and submission grappling—coupled with a striking output that racks up significant volume—has earned him a reputation for relentless pressure and technical versatility. Micallef’s UFC tenure began in February 2025, and he has since demonstrated a knack for neutralizing opponents on the ground while hunting for openings in the clinch.

On the opposite side, Oban Elliott enters as the underdog, opening at roughly +105 to +124 across major books. The Welsh competitor is 12-3-0 overall and has split his two UFC appearances, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Seokhyeon Ko in June 2025. Elliott’s strengths lie in his athleticism and finishing instincts—three knockouts and three submissions pepper his record—and he boasts a respectable 48 percent significant strike accuracy. His 44 percent takedown success rate and four first-round finishes suggest that he can end the night abruptly if he implements a high-tempo game plan.

This preview will delve deeper into each fighter’s statistical profile, styles, and historical performances to assess key matchups, likely strategies, and betting angles. From Micallef’s 50 percent takedown accuracy and elevated fight IQ to Elliott’s well-rounded skill set and hunger to rebound, we’ll break down the critical factors that could determine who emerges victorious in this pivotal welterweight showdown. Whether you’re targeting a technical mat battle, a stand-up war, or an early finish, understanding the nuances of this matchup is essential for both fans and bettors gearing up for UFC 325.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.

Matchup Breakdown: Fighter Profiles & Analysis

Jonathan Micallef

Background

• Age: 26
• Country: Australia
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a wrestling/submission foundation

Jonathan Micallef bursts onto the scene as a dynamic grappler who pairs heavy pressure with sneaky submission attacks. He debuted in the UFC on February 8, 2025, immediately showcasing maturity beyond his eight-fight pro career.

Recent Form (Last 5 bouts)

• Win vs Kevin Jousset – Unanimous Decision (UFC debut, Feb. 8, 2025)
• Prior to his UFC call-up, Micallef amassed an 8-1 record on the regional circuit, finishing opponents via KO and submission.
• He is riding an eight-fight winning streak, dating back to his only career loss early in his pro run.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (50%): Converts half of his wrestling entries into control time, forcing opponents into uncomfortable positions.
• Submission Upside: Three career submissions; hunts chokes and armbars aggressively once top position is secured.
• Pace and Pressure: Average fight time is 9:01, indicating a tendency to keep a high work rate and seek early finishes.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (44%): Below-average output in stand-up exchanges compared to top-10 welterweights.
• Striking Defense (59%): Vulnerable to clean shots when pressured; Elliott’s precision could exploit openings.
• Takedown Defense (50%): While offensively sound, Micallef is defensively porous—he concedes half of his opponents’ attempts.

---

Oban Elliott

Background

• Age: 27
• Country: Wales
• Fighting Style: Versatile MMA with balanced striking and grappling

Elliott has quickly become a fan favorite for his finishing instincts and relentless cardio. He made his UFC debut on Feb. 17, 2024, and has already earned four first-round stoppages in his 12-3 pro career.

Recent Form (Last 4 bouts)

• Loss vs Seokhyeon Ko – Unanimous Decision (Jun. 21, 2025)
• Win vs Bassil Hafez – KO/TKO (Nov. 16, 2024)
• Win vs Preston Parsons – Unanimous Decision (Jul. 27, 2024)
• Win vs Val Woodburn – Unanimous Decision (Feb. 17, 2024)

Strengths

• Significant Strike Accuracy (48%): Lands nearly half of his attempted power and volume shots, higher than Micallef.
• Significant Strike Defense (60%): Slips or blocks six out of ten incoming strikes; frustrates opponents’ offense.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time 14:08; thrives in later rounds and rarely fades.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Accuracy (44%): Below-average takedown output—struggles to bring elite wrestlers like Micallef to the mat.
• Takedown Defense (55%): Concedes over half of takedown attempts; vulnerable to sustained clinch work and ground control.
• Early Rounds: Despite four first-round finishes, Elliott can be susceptible to strong wrestlers’ opening surges.

---

Head-to-Head Implications

Micallef’s grappling base (50% TD accuracy) against Elliott’s middling (55%) takedown defense suggests the fight may be dictated on the mat. Conversely, Elliott’s superior stand-up metrics—48% accuracy vs. Micallef’s 44%, and 60% vs. 59% defense—offer a path to victory if he can keep the fight vertical and weather the early wrestling onslaught.

From a stylistic standpoint:

• Micallef will push the pace, mix double-leg entries with ground-and-pound, and hunt submissions.
• Elliott must use lateral movement, crisp counters, and stay off his back, hoping to drag Micallef into deep water late.

This clash of grappling vs. striking, early pressure vs. endurance, will determine who walks away with momentum in the ultra-competitive welterweight landscape.

Odds Breakdown: Betting Lines & History

Current Betting Lines

As of January 19, 2026, Jonathan Micallef is the clear favorite across the board, while Oban Elliott carries underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of the key money-lines:

• Jonathan Micallef:
  • Bovada: –130 (best price for the favorite)
  • Caesars: –135
  • DraftKings: –148
  • BetOnline.ag: –150
  • BetRivers: –132
  • BetMGM: –140
  • FanDuel: –146

• Oban Elliott:
  • BetOnline.ag: +130 (best price for the underdog)
  • DraftKings: +124
  • Bovada: +110
  • BetMGM: +105
  • Caesars: +105
  • BetRivers: +107
  • FanDuel: +114

The spread between the sharpest favorite price (–130) and the juiciest underdog price (+130) reveals a roughly 2.6-to-1 swing in payout potential. If you’re siding with the home-town hero, Bovada offers the most favorable line on Micallef. For those backing the upset, BetOnline.ag yields the highest return on Elliott.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

A review of line history shows bettors have steadily shifted odds in favor of Micallef:

• Jonathan Micallef at DraftKings: Opened at –120 on Jan. 7 → slid to –135 by Jan. 12 → drifted to –142 on Jan. 18 → closed at –148 on Jan. 19.
• Oban Elliott at DraftKings: Opened at +100 on Jan. 7 → climbed to +114 by Jan. 12 → jumped to +120 on Jan. 18 → peaked at +124 on Jan. 19.

These swings indicate significant early support for Micallef, pushing his line more negative, while Elliott’s underdog odds lengthened. The sharpest movement occurred around January 12–13, likely tied to public reaction to training reports or Micallef’s strong UFC debut.

Best Sportsbook to Bet

• Favorite (Micallef): Bovada’s –130 offers the lowest negative vig and maximizes your potential return if you believe he will win.
• Underdog (Elliott): BetOnline.ag at +130 is the clear choice for best underdog value, providing the highest payout for an upset.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager:

• On Jonathan Micallef at –130 (Bovada):
  • Profit ≈ $770
  • Total payout ≈ $1,770

• On Oban Elliott at +130 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Profit ≈ $1,300
  • Total payout ≈ $2,300

Based on these lines, the implied chances are roughly 57% for Micallef and 43% for Elliott. While Micallef’s home-crowd advantage and grappling pedigree make him the favorite, Elliott’s value price at +130 could pay dividends in an upset scenario.

---

This comprehensive look at the odds, line movement, and payout scenarios should help you decide where the value lies. Whether you’re locking in Micallef’s favored status or chasing the lucrative Elliott upset, understanding these nuances is key to making an informed bet on UFC 325’s welterweight opener.