Joanderson Brito vs Isaac Thomson UFC Odds & Pick

Joanderson Brito vs Isaac Thomson Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On Sunday, December 13, 2025, rising contender Joanderson Brito squares off against promising Aussie prospect Isaac Thomson in a featherweight clash at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Scheduled as part of the Preliminary Card for UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape, this 145-pound showdown kicks off the evening’s action and promises fireworks between two grapplers with finishing instincts.

When and Where

• Date: Sunday, December 13, 2025
• Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
• Card: Preliminary Card, UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape
• Start Time: Doors open at 5:00 PM PT; first prelim at 6:00 PM PT

The Favorite: Joanderson Brito

Brazilian slugger Joanderson “Brazzo” Brito enters the Octagon as the consensus betting favorite at -255 (BetOnline.ag). The 30-year-old veteran boasts a career record of 17-5-1, including 8 knockouts, 7 submissions, and an impressive 10 first-round finishes. Since making his UFC debut in January 2022, Brito has mixed high-octane striking with relentless takedowns, evidenced by his 50% significant strike accuracy and 68% takedown success rate. Despite recent setbacks—a unanimous decision loss to Pat Sabatini (April 2025) and a split decision defeat against William Gomis (September 2024)—Brito’s resilience and finishing pedigree make him a fight-ending threat every time he steps through the cage door.

The Underdog: Isaac Thomson

Challenging Brito will be Isaac Thomson, a 23-year-old Australian with a 9-2-0 professional tally. Priced at +215 underdog odds, Thomson is still carving out his UFC identity following his Octagon debut in December 2025. Standing 71 inches tall with a 72.5-inch reach, the Sydney native blends youth and athleticism, carrying 4 career knockouts and 1 submission on his résumé. While his UFC metrics are yet to be fully established—no significant strike or takedown percentages recorded—Thomson’s upside lies in his raw power and willingness to press forward. A win for the underdog would mark a statement-making upset and catapult him toward the featherweight’s top 15.

Why This Fight Matters

• Styles Clash: Brito’s grappling-heavy approach versus Thomson’s power punching and forward pressure.
• Career Trajectory: A solid win for Brito could reignite his push for a top-15 ranking, while Thomson aims to extend his UFC tenure and climb the ladder.
• Betting Angles: With Brito favored at -255, value seekers may look to Thomson’s +215 to capitalize on the young Aussie’s upside and the potential for a late-fight turnaround.

As the first contest of the night at the UFC Apex, Brito vs Thomson sets the tone for an electrifying evening of fights. Whether you side with the seasoned Brazilian striker or the hungry Australian upstart, this featherweight tilt has all the makings of an early classic. Don’t miss the opening bell—this fight could end sooner than you think.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Joanderson Brito vs Isaac Thomson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Joanderson “Brazzo” Brito – The Veteran Striker

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Striker with high-level wrestling integration

Recent Form

Brito has experienced mixed results over his last five outings:

• Apr. 2025: Loss vs. Pat Sabatini – Decision (Unanimous)
• Sep. 2024: Loss vs. William Gomis – Decision (Split)
• May 2024: Win vs. Jack Shore – TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage) Rd 2, 3:35
• Nov 2023: Win vs. Jonathan Pearce – Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) Rd 2, 3:54
• Jul 2023: Win vs. Westin Wilson – KO/TKO Rd 1, 2:54

After rattling off three consecutive finishes, Brito stumbled in back-to-back decisions late in 2024 and spring 2025. Those losses highlighted areas for improvement in pacing and striking exchanges against top-tier featherweights.

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: 10 first-round finishes in 23 professional fights.
• Takedown Offense: 68 % takedown accuracy allows him to grind opponents against the fence.
• Striking Volume: 50 % significant strike accuracy mixes power punches with heavy leg kicks.
• Durability: Only five losses in 23 bouts, showing resilience in deep waters.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (43 %): Susceptible to higher-output strikers who press forward in tight range.
• Cardio in Deep Rounds: Two recent decision defeats suggest he can fade if he doesn’t secure an early finish.
• Predictability in Game Planning: Opponents have occasionally timed his level changes, leading to takedown defense lapses.

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Isaac “The Hammer” Thomson – The Rising Aussie Prospect

• Age: 23
• Country: Australia
• Fighting Style: Aggressive power striker with improving grappling chops

Recent Form

Though making his UFC debut this December, Thomson enters on a 4–1 run across regional promotions:

• 2025: Win – KO (Head Kick) Rd 1
• 2024: Win – Decision (Unanimous)
• 2024: Loss – Decision (Split)
• 2023: Win – Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) Rd 2
• 2023: Win – KO (Punches) Rd 1

His lone setback came via split decision, indicating he can go the distance when finishes don’t materialize. Three of his last four victories ended inside the distance, showcasing burgeoning power and tenacity.

Strengths

• Physical Tools: At 71″ tall with a 72.5″ reach, he holds a distinct height and range advantage over many featherweights.
• Knockout Power: Four career KO/TKOs suggest one big shot can turn the tide instantly.
• Youth & Gas Tank: At 23, he brings explosive pace and fresh legs for three-round wars.
• Unpredictability: Limited tape on his recent pro run makes game-planning against him a challenge.

Weaknesses

• Inexperience at UFC Level: No significant strike or takedown metrics recorded in the Octagon yet.
• Grappling Defense Unknown: Submission victories show offensive grappling potential, but his takedown defense remains untested at elite level.
• Finishing Dependency: If Brito weathers early storms, Thomson may struggle to mount consistent offense late in fights.
• Tactical Adaptability: Young fighters often reveal holes in adjustment between rounds under seasoned coaches.

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Matchup Implications:
Brito’s proven finishing arsenal and wrestling pedigree clash directly with Thomson’s length, power, and youthful aggression. If Brito can impose his grappling early, he may silence the Aussie’s striking. Conversely, Thomson’s reach and knockout threat could keep Brito honest on the feet, forcing a stand-up battle that favors the underdog’s explosiveness. This stylistic tug-of-war between veteran savvy and rookie exuberance makes Brito vs Thomson a must-watch featherweight bout on the preliminary card.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update from BetOnline.ag, the odds for Joanderson Brito vs Isaac Thomson stand at:

• Joanderson Brito: −255 (favorite)
• Isaac Thomson: +215 (underdog)

The 470-point gap highlights Brito as the clear betting favorite. At –255, Brito commands roughly a 72% implied probability of victory, while Thomson’s +215 suggests approximately a 32% chance to upset the Brazilian veteran.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the historical moneyline swings reveals significant market adjustments leading into fight night:

Joanderson Brito (−400 → −255)

• Dec. 10, 19:29 UTC: −400
• Dec. 10, 19:40 UTC: −380
• Dec. 10, 20:04 UTC: −340
• Dec. 10, 21:10 UTC: −325
• Dec. 10, 22:50 UTC: −335
• Dec. 11, 05:29 UTC: −300
• Dec. 11, 07:50 UTC: −255

Isaac Thomson (+330 → +215)

• Dec. 10, 19:29 UTC: +330
• Dec. 10, 19:40 UTC: +315
• Dec. 10, 20:04 UTC: +280
• Dec. 10, 22:50 UTC: +275
• Dec. 11, 05:29 UTC: +250
• Dec. 11, 07:50 UTC: +215

Key takeaways from the line movement:

• Sharpened Betting on Thomson: The underdog line has tightened by 115 points (from +330 to +215), indicating growing backing for the Aussie prospect.
• Slimmer Favorite Margin: Brito has shifted from heavy favorite status (−400) to a more moderate favorite (−255), suggesting bettors are wary of Brito’s recent decision losses and Thomson’s athletic upside.
• Market Confidence: The parallel swing in both directions underscores a market that respects both fighters’ abilities and sees genuine value on the underdog.

Payout Scenarios and Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager, here’s what you’d earn based on the current moneylines:

• Bet on Brito (−255):
  • Profit: $1,000 × (100 / 255) ≈ $392
  • Total Return: ≈ $1,392

• Bet on Thomson (+215):
  • Profit: $1,000 × (215 / 100) = $2,150
  • Total Return: $3,150

These payouts reflect the risk–reward balance: a Brito backer secures a smaller but safer return, while those banking on Thomson stand to more than triple their initial stake.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

Currently, BetOnline.ag offers the sharpest lines for this featherweight clash and an attractive affiliate bonus for new users. Their deep liquidity and rapid line adjustments ensure you’re getting the most competitive odds available. Other major books have mirrored these moves, but BetOnline.ag remains at the forefront for value, especially on underdog plays.

Summary

• Favorite: Joanderson Brito at −255 (≈72% win probability)
• Underdog: Isaac Thomson at +215 (≈32% win probability)
• Line Shifts: Significant movement on both sides—Thomson has gained 115 points of value.
• Value Play: At +215, Thomson offers a puncher’s upside.
• Safe Bet: Brito carries the favorite tag with a proven finish rate.

Whether you prioritize the higher potential payout of an underdog wager or the steadier return of backing the favorite, these odds chart the risk spectrum for what figures to be an intriguing featherweight showdown.