Oleksiejczuk vs Barriault UFC Middleweight Odds & AI Pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault Fight Analysis

Date & Time: February 8, 2026 • 02:00 AM GMT
Venue: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, United States
Card Placement: Main Card (UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira)

Fight Overview

The middleweight clash between Michal Oleksiejczuk and Marc-Andre Barriault is set to kick off the main card of UFC Fight Night on February 7, 2026 (February 8 at 02:00 AM GMT) at the state-of-the-art Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas. Neither fighter currently holds a ranking inside the top 15, but both men have earned their spot on this high-stakes show with compelling performances in recent bouts. As the lights go down and the cage door locks, fight fans and bettors alike will be focused on two rugged strikers looking to wrest control of the middleweight division.

Betting Landscape

Heading into this matchup, Michal Oleksiejczuk emerges as the clear favorite on most sportsbooks, listed at -280 (American odds) with BetOnline.ag. The 30-year-old Pole boasts a professional record of 21-9-0, highlighted by 16 knockout victories and an impressive 13 first-round finishes. His aggressive style and ability to finish swings momentum firmly in his favor.

On the other side, Canada’s own Marc-Andre Barriault enters as the underdog at +240. At age 35, Barriault carries a 17-10-0 ledger, including 11 KO wins and a knack for early stoppages, having secured 7 first-round finishes. Despite a four-fight skid in 2024–25, he rattled off a first-round TKO over Bruno Silva in May 2025, reminding fans that he remains a dangerous contender whenever he lands his heavy shots.

Key Storylines

• Oleksiejczuk’s Finishing Power: Almost 76% of Oleksiejczuk’s wins have come by knockout. His 51% significant strike accuracy pairs with a quick pace—his average fight time sits at just 6:03—making him a nightmare for opponents who don’t respect early onslaughts.
• Barriault’s Resilience: Despite a recent slump, Barriault’s 50% significant strike defense and 29% takedown defense show the grit of a seasoned veteran who can survive adversity. When his heavy hands connect, he has the power to turn any round on its head.
• Styles Make Fights: Both fighters prefer striking exchanges, but Oleksiejczuk holds the edge in takedown accuracy (44% vs. Barriault’s 29%). If Oleksiejczuk can mix in timely trips, he may neutralize Barriault’s knockout threat.

With the betting odds firmly favoring the explosive Oleksiejczuk, the question becomes whether Barriault can defy the numbers and engineer one of the biggest upsets of the evening. Fight night in Las Vegas is poised to deliver fireworks, and this middleweight scrap could be one of the most entertaining bouts on the card.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Michal Oleksiejczuk Profile

Age: 30 • Country: Poland • Fighting Style: MMA (well-rounded striker with wrestling chops)
Record: 21–9–0 | KOs/Subs: 16/1 | First-Round Finishes: 13
Key Metrics:

• Sig. Strike Accuracy: 51%
• Sig. Strike Defense: 60%
• Takedown Accuracy: 44%
• Takedown Defense: 53%
• Avg. Fight Time: 6:03

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Aug. 16, 2025 vs. Gerald Meerschaert – Loss (Decision)
2. Apr. 12, 2025 vs. Sedriques Dumas – Win (KO/TKO, R1 2:49)
3. Aug. 3, 2024 vs. Shara Magomedov – Loss (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Jun. 1, 2024 vs. Kevin Holland – Loss (Submission, R1 1:34)
5. Mar. 9, 2024 vs. Michel Pereira – Loss (Submission, R1 1:01)

Strengths

• Power & Finishing: With 16 KOs in 21 wins, Oleksiejczuk boasts one of the division’s most fearsome punchers.
• Striking Efficiency: Landing over half of his significant strikes, he keeps opponents on their back foot.
• Wrestling Offense: His 44% takedown rate allows him to mix levels and open up heavy ground-and-pound.

Weaknesses

• Submission Defense: Two of his last three losses came by submission, exposing gaps in his ground defense.
• Card Durability: An average fight time of just over six minutes suggests he often hunts early finishes; he can wilt when the pace slows.
• Takedown Defense: At 53%, he can be taken down by savvy wrestlers and controlled on the mat.

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Marc-Andre Barriault Profile

Age: 35 • Country: Canada • Fighting Style: Striker (power puncher with improving wrestling defense)
Record: 17–10–0 | KOs/Subs: 11/1 | First-Round Finishes: 7
Key Metrics:

• Sig. Strike Accuracy: 48%
• Sig. Strike Defense: 51%
• Takedown Accuracy: 29%
• Takedown Defense: 68%
• Avg. Fight Time: 10:04

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Jul. 26, 2025 vs. Shara Magomedov – Loss (Decision – Unanimous)
2. May 10, 2025 vs. Bruno Silva Blindado – Win (KO/TKO, R1 1:27)
3. Nov. 2, 2024 vs. Dustin Stoltzfus – Loss (KO/TKO, R1 4:28)
4. Jun. 29, 2024 vs. Joe Pyfer – Loss (KO/TKO, R1 1:25)
5. Jan. 20, 2024 vs. Chris Curtis – Loss (Decision – Split)

Strengths

• Heavy Hands: 11 KOs attest to Barriault’s ability to end fights abruptly—never count him out if he lands clean.
• Takedown Defense: Stopping nearly 70% of takedown attempts, he forces opponents to stand and trade.
• Experience & Durability: At 35, his veteran instincts help him weather storms and recover from adversity.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: Allowing half of incoming significant strikes puts him at risk against high-volume attackers.
• Offensive Wrestling: A 29% takedown rate means few opportunities to shift momentum on the mat.
• Age & Pace: A longer average fight time hints at a slower pace; younger, faster strikers may outwork him in later rounds.

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Head-to-Head Implications

Oleksiejczuk’s precise, powerful offense versus Barriault’s granite chin and takedown defense sets the stage for a classic striker’s duel. If Michal can exploit Marc-Andre’s defensive lapses early or mix in takedowns, he’ll control range and tempo. Conversely, if Barriault weathers the storm and forces extended exchanges, his veteran savvy and power shots could turn the tide. This stylistic clash—explosive aggressor versus durable brawler—promises fireworks under the bright lights of the Meta APEX.

Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Michal Oleksiejczuk sits firmly as the favorite at -280 (American odds), while Marc-Andre Barriault checks in as the underdog at +240 on BetOnline.ag. This gap in pricing reflects the market’s confidence in Oleksiejczuk’s finishing prowess and recent surge in form. Betting $1,000 on Oleksiejczuk at –280 would return $1,357.14 (your $1,000 stake plus $357.14 profit). In contrast, a $1,000 wager on Barriault at +240 pays out $3,400 (your $1,000 stake plus $2,400 profit).

Implied Probability

• Michal Oleksiejczuk: ~74% chance to win
• Marc-Andre Barriault: ~29% chance to win

These figures underscore Oleksiejczuk’s status as the clear betting favorite, though the underdog always carries upset potential—especially one with Barriault’s heavy hands.

Line Movement & Market Sentiment

By tracking the line history, we see notable shifts over a short timeframe:

• Oleksiejczuk
  • Jan 26, 18:09 UTC: –350
  • Jan 26, 18:19 UTC: –300
  • Jan 27, 08:08 UTC: –280

• Barriault
  • Jan 26, 18:09 UTC: +285
  • Jan 26, 18:19 UTC: +250
  • Jan 27, 08:08 UTC: +240

In less than 14 hours, Oleksiejczuk’s line moved from –350 to –280, indicating a surge of money backing him. Simultaneously, Barriault’s odds shortened from +285 to +240, suggesting underdog support as bettors look for value or a potential upset. This two-way action confirms sharp and recreational bettors alike are finding reasons to back both fighters—perhaps Oleksiejczuk’s aggressive style is drawing confident bets, while Barriault’s veteran durability and finishing upside attract those chasing bigger payouts.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

While odds will vary across platforms, BetOnline.ag currently offers these lines with minimal juice and a solid reputation for live updates. Their transparent odds history allows bettors to track market shifts in real time and capitalize on early value before lines tighten further. If you’re shopping for the best price on either fighter, locking in your bet at BetOnline.ag is recommended.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

• Favorite vs. Underdog Dynamics: Oleksiejczuk’s favoritism is well-justified by his finishing rate and recent uptick in form. Expect heavy early money to come in on him, driving his line shorter as fight night approaches.
• Underdog Appeal: Barriault’s price has moved notably, reflecting both genuine support and the allure of a high-reward bet. His +240 price tag means every $100 staked pays $240 profit—ideal for bettors banking on a late-night upset.
• Timing Your Bet: Early bettors on Oleksiejczuk at –350 locked in better value, while Barriault backers saw their odds improve from +285 to +240. Monitoring live line movement can offer crucial edge—if you believe Oleksiejczuk’s run continues, locking him at current odds may provide a safer return; if you foresee Barriault catching a flash finish, his current underdog price still holds appeal.

This middleweight showdown features contrasting styles and risk/reward profiles. Whether you side with the favorite’s efficiency or gamble on the underdog’s power surge, understanding these odds and their evolution is key to making an informed wager.