Winner: Mario Bautista
Confidence Score: 62Mario Bautista's edge comes from his proven UFC experience, superior significant strike accuracy (49% vs 43%), and a more diverse finishing ability with 6 submissions. While Vinicius Oliveira has a strong record and high finishing rate (16 KOs, 14 first-round finishes), his UFC tenure is short and his recent wins have come by decision rather than early stoppage. Bautista has faced and beaten a higher caliber of opposition, and his ability to mix grappling and striking should neutralize Oliveira's power. Statistically, fighters with Bautista's experience, reach, and well-rounded skill set have won the majority of similar high-level bantamweight matchups, especially when they can avoid early KO threats and drag the fight into deeper rounds where Oliveira's finishing rate drops. Bautista's takedown defense and submission threat give him more paths to victory in a competitive matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.
