UFC Albazi vs Horiguchi Fight Analysis & Betting Odds

Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi fight analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated flyweight clash between Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi is set to ignite the octagon on Saturday, February 7, 2026, at the state-of-the-art Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. Serving as a pivotal matchup on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira, this bout is scheduled to begin at approximately 6:00 p.m. PT (2:00 a.m. UTC), and promises fireworks as both men chase a critical top-5 divisional standing.

As fight week intensifies, oddsmakers have installed Horiguchi as the clear favorite, currently listed at -350 (BetOnline.ag), while Albazi carries underdog odds of +285. These lines reflect contrasting career trajectories: the veteran Horiguchi (35-5-0 MMA record) brings over a decade of elite competition experience, whereas Albazi (17-2-0) has emerged as one of the division’s most explosive finishers since his UFC debut in 2020.

Kyoji Horiguchi, a former two-division champion in RIZIN and Bellator, boasts a well-rounded skill set that blends precise striking (47% significant strike accuracy) with a dangerous submission game (6 career submissions). His defensive metrics (63% strike defense, 55% takedown defense) underscore why he’s ranked #8 in the UFC flyweight hierarchy. At age 35, Horiguchi leverages veteran savvy and a championship pedigree, most recently submitting Tagir Ulanbekov in November 2025.

Conversely, Amir Albazi has carved a reputation as one of the most dynamic finishers in the weight class: 9 of his 17 wins have come by stoppage inside the first frame, and his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu foundation has propelled him to a #6 ranking. Standing at 65 inches tall with a 68-inch reach, Albazi counters his shorter stature with relentless forward pressure and a willingness to engage wherever the fight unfolds. Though his striking accuracy sits at 35%, his aggressive pace and transition game make him a dangerous blueprint-breaker.

This flyweight showdown isn’t just a clash of styles—it’s a crossroads bout that could reshape the upper echelon of the division. A win for Horiguchi would reaffirm his claim as a perennial title contender and potentially set up clashes with the division’s elite. Meanwhile, Albazi can vault into true title contention by toppling a seasoned veteran on enemy turf.

In this analysis, we will break down their respective strengths and weaknesses, examine key statistical matchups, and project how stylistic factors might influence the outcome. Whether you’re eyeing a smart money wager or simply a fan of high-octane flyweight action, this breakdown will equip you with the insights needed to make sense of what promises to be a fight night thriller.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Kyoji Horiguchi

Age: 35 • Country: Japan • Fighting Style: Balanced Striker / Submission Artist

Kyoji Horiguchi is one of the most seasoned veterans in the UFC flyweight division. A former two-division champion in RIZIN and Bellator, Horiguchi brings a 35-5-0 professional record into this matchup. His striking pedigree is complemented by a dangerous submission game, making him a true threat wherever the fight goes.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs Tagir Ulanbekov — Submission (Rear-naked choke), R3, 2:18 (Nov. 22, 2025)
• Win vs Ali Bagautinov — Decision (Unanimous), R3, 5:00 (Nov. 19, 2016)
• Win vs Neil Seery — Decision (Unanimous), R3, 5:00 (May 8, 2016)
• Win vs Chico Camus — Decision (Unanimous), R3, 5:00 (Sept. 27, 2015)
• Loss vs Temetoriasu Shiyonson — Decision, (Apr. 25, 2015)

Despite a near-decade layoff from the UFC cage between 2016 and 2025, Horiguchi’s recent submission over Ulanbekov showcased that his timing and grappling remain elite.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (47%) and Defense (63%): Horiguchi lands nearly half of his significant strikes while avoiding almost two-thirds of those thrown at him.
• Takedown Prowess (43% TD acc., 55% TD def.): He mixes takedowns seamlessly into his striking offense and defends shots effectively.
• Versatility & Experience: With 15 KO wins and 6 submissions, Horiguchi’s championship pedigree and fight IQ are major assets, especially late in fights.

Weaknesses

• Lack of Early Finishes: Zero first-round stoppages in his UFC tenure suggest he can take time to warm up.
• Age & Activity: At 35, and with sporadic UFC appearances, there may be concerns about cardio consistency and reaction times against relentless opponents.

---

Amir Albazi

Age: 32 • Country: Iraq • Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Aggressive Finisher

Amir Albazi has rapidly ascended to the upper echelon of the flyweight ranks, compiling a 17-2-0 record since his 2020 UFC debut. Known for explosive first-round finishes, Albazi’s finishing instincts and grappling acumen define his threat level.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Loss vs Brandon Moreno — Decision (Unanimous), R5, 5:00 (Nov. 2, 2024)
• Win vs Kai Kara France — Decision (Split), R5, 5:00 (June 3, 2023)
• Win vs Alessandro Costa — KO/TKO, R3, 2:13 (Dec. 17, 2022)
• Win vs Francisco Figueiredo — Submission (Rear-naked choke), R1, 4:34 (Aug. 20, 2022)
• Win vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov — Decision (Unanimous), R3, 5:00 (Jan. 23, 2021)

Four wins in his last five outings underline Albazi’s consistency, with his lone setback coming in a title tilt against Moreno.

Strengths

• First-Round Finishes (9): More than half of his victories end in the opening stanza, keeping opponents under constant pressure.
• Submission Game (9 Sub Wins): A brown-belt in BJJ, Albazi excels off his back and in scramble situations.
• Striking Defense (62%): He avoids most incoming strikes and offsets his lower accuracy (35%) with volume and angles.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (35%): Albazi throws heavily but connects at a lower rate, which could favor a precise counter-striker like Horiguchi.
• Takedown Metrics (32% acc., 50% def.): His offensive grappling can stall on bigger, more technical wrestlers, and his takedown defense is only average.
• Reach Disadvantage: With a 68-inch reach versus Horiguchi’s 69, Albazi must work inside to unleash his power.

---

This matchup pits a veteran technician in Horiguchi against an explosive finisher in Albazi. Horiguchi’s precision striking and grappling defense clash with Albazi’s relentless pressure and submission prowess, setting the stage for a stylistic chess match with significant divisional implications.

Betting Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Kyoji Horiguchi is installed as the clear favorite at -350, while Amir Albazi carries underdog status at +285. These odds are available at BetOnline.ag, one of the top sportsbooks for MMA wagers. The significant gap between the lines—Horiguchi at heavy favorite money and Albazi returning nearly three-to-one on a winning ticket—highlights how the market views their respective chances on fight night.

• Favorite: Kyoji Horiguchi (–350)
• Underdog: Amir Albazi (+285)
• Recommended Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Tracking the evolution of the odds offers insight into how sharp bettors and public money have influenced the market:

• Kyoji Horiguchi (–450 → –320 → –260 → –245 → –260 → –300 → –350)

• Opened as a massive –450 favorite, then quickly shifted to –320 as early money backed Albazi.
• The line dipped further to –245 before Horiguchi regained momentum, moving back toward –350.
• This represents a 205-point swing from his initial price, indicating substantial action on both sides.

• Amir Albazi (+350 → +270 → +220 → +210 → +220 → +250 → +285)

• Began at +350, tightened to +270 and +220 as bettors anticipated his explosive game plan.
• Briefly slid to +210 before drifting back out to +285, suggesting late confidence returns on Horiguchi.

These fluctuations suggest that while early bettors saw value in Albazi’s finishing upside, significant money on Horiguchi has restored him as the strong favorite. The back-and-forth movement underscores a competitive betting market rather than one-sided action.

Payout Scenarios for a $1,000 Bet

If you’re weighing where to place a $1,000 wager, here’s what each outcome would look like:

• $1,000 on Horiguchi at –350
  • Profit: $285.71
  • Total Return (stake + profit): $1,285.71

• $1,000 on Albazi at +285
  • Profit: $2,850
  • Total Return (stake + profit): $3,850

Albazi’s underdog payout is nearly three times your stake, reflecting the higher risk but also the potential windfall if he pulls off the upset.

Implied Probabilities

While fans seldom dive into the math, the odds reflect an implied likelihood of victory for each man:

• Kyoji Horiguchi: ~78% implied probability
• Amir Albazi: ~26% implied probability

These percentages demonstrate why Horiguchi is favored so heavily—his experience, striking precision, and grappling defenses have inspired strong market confidence.

---

Overall, the odds analysis reveals a battle-tested Horiguchi commanding respect from bettors, while Albazi’s explosive finishes have drawn early support without fully closing the gap. If you believe Albazi can maintain pressure, force scrambles, and land one of his patented early submissions, the +285 line offers serious value. Conversely, if you trust Horiguchi’s veteran savvy and well-rounded skill set, the –350 price at BetOnline.ag provides a safer, albeit smaller, return.