Winner: Sumudaerji
Confidence Score: 78Sumudaerji holds a significant edge in striking, with a much higher significant strike accuracy (52% vs 40%) and a pronounced reach advantage (72" arm reach vs 62.5" for Aguilar). He also has a strong history of first-round finishes (11) and knockout power (13 KO wins), while Aguilar is more submission-oriented but has only a 32% takedown accuracy and poor takedown defense (49%). Sumudaerji's takedown defense (71%) is above average for the division, making it difficult for Aguilar to get the fight to the ground where he is most dangerous. Historically, fighters with Sumudaerji's length and striking profile in the flyweight division have a high win rate against grapplers who lack elite wrestling. Both fighters are 29, but Sumudaerji's physical tools and finishing ability give him a clear edge unless Aguilar can consistently secure takedowns, which is unlikely given the stats and matchup trends.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.
