Winner: Bruna Brasil
Confidence Score: 67Bruna Brasil has several key advantages over Ketlen Souza in this matchup. She is taller (66" vs 63"), has a longer arm reach (65.5" vs 63"), and a notably longer leg reach (38" vs 35"), which is significant in the strawweight division where range often dictates striking success. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy (Brasil 57%, Souza 58%) and defense (Brasil 52%, Souza 53%), but Brasil's size and reach will allow her to better control distance. Most importantly, Brasil's takedown accuracy (64%) is dramatically higher than Souza's (14%), giving her a clear path to mixing in wrestling if needed, especially since Souza's takedown defense is just 50%. Both women have recent wins and losses against similar opposition, but Brasil's more versatile MMA style and superior physical attributes give her the edge. Historically, fighters with a reach and takedown advantage at strawweight win at a higher rate in similar matchups. While both are coming off split decision losses, the data and matchup dynamics lean toward Brasil, though Souza's power and finishing ability keep the pick from being higher than 70% confidence.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.
