Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho Fight Odds & AI Pick

Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho fight analysis

When and Where

On Sunday, February 28, 2026, bantamweight contenders Cristian Quinonez and Kris Moutinho will lock horns on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh, live from the Arena CDMX in México D.F. The action is slated to begin at 5:00 p.m. local time (22:00 GMT), and this pivotal undercard clash promises fireworks for fight fans tuning in. As part of the first televised slate of bouts, this matchup sets the tone for what could be a night of upsets, finishes and rising prospects under the bright lights of the Mexican capital.

Fighters to Watch

• Cristian Quinonez (27, Tlaltenango, Mexico)
  Making his third appearance under the UFC banner, Quinonez boasts an 18–5 professional record highlighted by 10 knockouts and 3 submissions. A natural Jiu-Jitsu practitioner with a stout takedown defense (84%) and a 40% significant strike accuracy, he has already proven tough to hit—defending 55% of strikes aimed his way—and relentless in pursuit of finishes, racking up five first-round stoppages in his career.
• Kris Moutinho (32, Ravenna, USA)
  The veteran American enters with a 14–7 ledger, 6 knockouts and 3 submissions. Despite his experience, Moutinho arrives on a three-fight skid—all by KO/TKO—casting doubt on his chin and confidence at the highest level. Notably, his UFC profile shows 0% takedown success and defense, painting him as a pure striker who must keep the fight standing to remain competitive.

Favorite vs. Underdog

Oddsmakers have installed Cristian Quinonez as a heavy -525 favorite (Bovada), reflecting his blend of power, grappling pedigree and momentum. At those prices, a $100 wager would net roughly $19 in profit should Quinonez assert his dominance. On the other side, Kris Moutinho sits a long +375 underdog, meaning a $100 bet returns $475 if he pulls off one of the biggest upsets on the night. The contrast in lines underscores the expectation that the Mexican standout will control the tempo—mixing takedowns with crisp striking—while Moutinho must gamble on a fast knockout or catch Quinonez in transition.

Why This Fight Matters

Though not a title eliminator, this scrap carries serious career implications. A decisive win for Quinonez propels him closer to the top-15 conversation in the bantamweight division, especially if he can impose his wrestling and finish inside three rounds. For Moutinho, snapping his losing streak with an upset would reestablish him as a threat and reinvigorate his UFC tenure. With two contrasting styles—Quinonez’s grappling-heavy arsenal versus Moutinho’s stand-and-bang approach—this bout could deliver an early preview of who will emerge as Mexico’s next breakout bantamweight star.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Cristian Quinonez Profile

Age: 27
Country: Mexico
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Well-Rounded Finisher

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Feb. 24, 2024 vs Raoni Barcelos – Loss by Submission (R3, 2:04)
• Jun. 17, 2023 vs Kyung Ho Kang – Loss by Submission (R1, 2:25)
• Sep. 3, 2022 vs Khalid Taha – Win by KO/TKO (R1, 3:15)

Quinonez broke into the UFC in late 2022 with a first-round stoppage, but back-to-back submission defeats have exposed areas in his ground exchanges—ironically against opponents known more for grappling than pure striking.

Strengths

• Finishing Instinct: 10 KOs, 3 submissions, and 5 first-round finishes in 23 career bouts underline his killer instinct when he finds an opening.
• Takedown Defense (84%): Elite defensive wrestling allows him to dictate whether the fight stays standing or hits the mat.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (40%): Above-average precision means he lands meaningful shots at a solid clip.
• Durability and Pace: An average fight time of 8:11 suggests good cardio and the ability to push deep into later rounds.

Weaknesses

• Submission Defense: Two recent losses via submission highlight vulnerability when back on the mat against slick grapplers.
• Takedown Offense (38%): While solid defensively, his 38% offensive rate is respectable but not elite against high-level wrestlers.
• Pressure Under Fire: When opponents force scrambles or maintain top control, Quinonez can get tilted and opens himself to chokes and armbars.

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Kris Moutinho Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Pure Striker / Counter Puncher

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Jun. 14, 2025 vs Malcolm Wellmaker – Loss by KO/TKO (R1, 2:37)
• Mar. 12, 2022 vs Guido Cannetti – Loss by KO/TKO (R1, 2:07)
• Jul. 10, 2021 vs Sean O’Malley – Loss by KO/TKO (R3, 4:33)

Moutinho has struggled in recent UFC action, dropping three straight by strikes. The American enters as a high-risk, high-reward fighter who must land early or face mounting damage.

Strengths

• Power Striking: Six career knockouts showcase his ability to end fights with one punch or elbow.
• Experience: A 21-fight professional slate (14–7) means he has seen a variety of styles and can adapt on the fly.
• Aggressive Tempo: His willingness to engage and press forward forces opponents to respect his power.

Weaknesses

• Chin and Durability: Three KO/TKO losses in his last three bouts suggest declining resilience under fire.
• Takedown Game: 0% takedown accuracy and defense indicate an inability to change levels or threaten wrestlers.
• Strike Defense (29%): Moutinho absorbs over 70% of significant strikes thrown his way—he must improve head movement and distance management.
• Cardio Concerns: An average fight time of 6:26 may point to gas issues if unable to secure a quick finish.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

On paper, Quinonez’s grappling edge and fight-finishing versatility create a challenging puzzle for Moutinho, who must rely on one-punch power and flawless timing. Moutinho’s path to victory hinges on early success in the pocket, while Quinonez can neutralize danger with takedown defense and turn the tide with ground control or precise counters. This clash of styles—veteran striker vs. rising grappler—promises a compelling chess match with explosive moments.

Odds Breakdown and Betting History

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Cristian Quinonez enters as a substantial favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Kris Moutinho stands firmly in underdog territory. Here’s a snapshot of the consensus lines (American odds):

• Cristian Quinonez:
  • Bovada: –525
  • DraftKings: –535
  • BetUS / BetRivers / BetOnline.ag: –500

• Kris Moutinho:
  • Bovada: +375
  • DraftKings: +400
  • BetUS: +369
  • BetRivers: +370
  • BetOnline.ag: +375

Quinonez’s price—ranging from –500 to –535—reflects oddsmakers’ belief that he holds a dominant skill edge. Conversely, Moutinho pays out between +369 and +400, indicating that he’s a true long-shot (the underdog) with roughly one-in-five chance to pull off an upset.

Best Sportsbooks to Shop:

• For backing the favorite, the softest line is –500 (BetUS, BetRivers, BetOnline.ag), maximizing your potential return on Quinonez.
• For the underdog backers, DraftKings offers +400, the juiciest payday on Kris Moutinho.

Line Movement and Odds History

A review of the publicly available odds history shows remarkably stable pricing since the early February open:

• Quinonez debuted around –525 at Bovada and has held in the –500 to –535 range across books.
• Moutinho has fluctuated only marginally between +369 and +400, depending on the sportsbook’s risk tolerance.

There have been no dramatic swings over the past two weeks, suggesting that betting action has been evenly distributed and no sharp money has forced large adjustments. Bettors looking for value will find it in shopping around the half-point differences: that extra +31 on Moutinho at DraftKings or the less punishing –500 on Quinonez at BetUS can translate into meaningful extra profit.

Betting Payouts and Implied Chances

If you’re weighing a hypothetical $1,000 wager, here’s what your returns would look like at the top books:

• Betting $1,000 on Quinonez at –500
  • Profit: $190.48
  • Total Payout: ~$1,190.48

• Betting $1,000 on Moutinho at +400
  • Profit: $4,000
  • Total Payout: $5,000

Despite the lopsided lines, the underdog’s payday is more than four times your stake if Moutinho shocks the world. From an implied-probability perspective, Quinonez carries north of an 80% win expectancy, whereas Moutinho sits at about a 20% shot. No matter which side you choose, line shopping—even for half-point or five-point swings—will give your bankroll the best chance for maximum returns.

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By comparing the current odds, analyzing the lack of major line movement, and calculating realistic payouts, you’ll be armed with all the key information needed to make an educated wager on Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho.