UFC Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz Fight Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh
Date & Time: Saturday, February 28, 2026 – Preliminary Card (approx. 10:00 PM UTC)
Venue: Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico
Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lb)

Introduction

Saturday night’s prelims in Mexico City kick off with a compelling Middleweight showdown between two UFC newcomers: Damian Pinas and Wes Schultz. Scheduled for the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh on February 28, 2026, this bout is set to start around 10:00 PM UTC at Arena CDMX, one of the sport’s most storied venues. With both fighters making their promotional debuts, the stakes are high as each man vies to make a lasting first impression on the global stage.

From the opening bell, all eyes will be on Damian Pinas (1-0-0), the 23-year-old prospect hailing from Suriname, who enters as the clear betting favorite. Pinas has been installed at roughly –280 to –295 across major sportsbooks, and for good reason. In his lone UFC appearance—which happens to be his very first promotion outing—he displayed lightning-fast finishing instincts, ending his debut in just 1:46 of fight time. Boasting a 50% significant striking accuracy and a crisp, undefeated professional record, Pinas looks to capitalize on his momentum and impress a fervent Mexico City crowd with his explosive power and precise striking.

On the opposite end of the spectrum stands Wes Schultz (1-1-0), the 29-year-old American who arrives as the designated underdog at around +225 to +240 odds. Schultz, fighting out of Madison, Wisconsin, brings a more measured approach to the canvas. With a balanced striking output—landing 46% of his significant strikes—and a respectable 40% takedown accuracy, Schultz is no stranger to adversity. His UFC tenure so far includes a split decision loss followed by a bounce-back victory, giving him valuable octagon experience that he’ll lean on against a heavier favorite.

What’s at Stake

Both Pinas and Schultz share the same objective: secure a statement win to climb the Middleweight ladder. A victory for Pinas would cement his reputation as a knockout artist with serious finishing prowess, potentially fast-tracking him toward higher-profile matchups on the main card. For Schultz, an upset win over the surging Surinamese fighter would not only mark his second career UFC triumph, but also demonstrate his ability to adapt and grind through a hostile environment.

Key Storylines

• Favorite vs. Underdog: Pinas enters as a swift, hard-hitting favorite looking to extend his perfect record, while Schultz’s underdog status could play to his advantage if he weathers early storms.
• Debut Night Pressure: Both fighters share the spotlight of their UFC debuts, adding layers of anticipation and nerves.
• Striking vs. Strategy: Expect a classic striker‐versus‐all-rounder narrative, with Pinas hunting the finish and Schultz aiming to neutralize aggression through defense and grappling.

As the lights dim and the cage door locks, Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz promises fireworks, high stakes, and the beginning of what both men hope will be long UFC careers. Don’t miss our full breakdown and betting picks ahead of this intriguing Middleweight clash.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Damian Pinas: The Surinamese Striker

Age: 23 • Country: Suriname • Fighting Style: Stand-up specialist (Muay Thai/Kickboxing)

Damian Pinas bursts onto the UFC stage with a perfect 1-0 record inside the Octagon and a regional résumé boasting a 7-1 pro ledger. A former national Muay Thai champion, Pinas has developed into a polished striker who relies on precision, power and a ceaseless forward pace.

Recent Form (last 5 pro bouts)

• Win – TKO (Round 1) – Regional Promotion, Oct. 2025
• Win – Unanimous Decision – Regional Promotion, Aug. 2025
• Win – KO (Round 2) – Regional Promotion, May 2025
• Loss – Decision – Regional Promotion, Feb. 2025
• Win – KO (Round 1) – Regional Promotion, Nov. 2024

Strengths

• Finishing Power: Averaging a 1:46 fight time in the UFC, Pinas demonstrates elite early-fight explosiveness.
• Striking Accuracy (50%): Lands half of his significant strikes, outpacing most debutants.
• Aggression & Volume: Applies relentless pressure, forcing opponents onto their back foot.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Inexperience: 0% takedown offense and defense in UFC action; vulnerable if the fight hits the mat.
• Cardio Durability: Tends to gas if unable to secure an early finish, as reflected by a pace drop in rounds two and three on the regional circuit.
• Defensive Gaps: Sig Strike Defense at 46% suggests he can be caught when over-committing.

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Wes Schultz: The American All-Rounder

Age: 29 • Country: United States • Fighting Style: Wrestling Base with BJJ & Boxing

Wes Schultz brings a balanced toolkit to the middleweight ranks. A two-time collegiate wrestling finalist turned MMA competitor, Schultz holds a 6-2 regional record before splitting his first two UFC outings (1-1). He blends solid boxing fundamentals with a suffocating top-game and improving submission arsenal.

Recent Form (last 5 pro bouts)

• Win – Split Decision – UFC, Dec. 2025
• Loss – Split Decision – UFC, Oct. 2025
• Win – Submission (Arm-Triangle) – Regional, Jul. 2025
• Win – TKO (Ground & Pound) – Regional, Apr. 2025
• Loss – Decision – Regional, Jan. 2025

Strengths

• Versatile Offense: 40% takedown accuracy pairs with a 46% striking defense, enabling Schultz to mix striking entries with level changes.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 5:23 suggests he can outlast opponents and excel in late rounds.
• Grappling Control: Excellent top control and ground-and- pound; submissions are a growing threat.

Weaknesses

• Stand-up Defense: 48% significant strike defense leaves openings against sharp strikers.
• Finishing Touch: Only one UFC finish; often forced to lean on judges if unable to impose wrestling early.
• Striking Output: 46% sig strike accuracy but moderate volume—may struggle to sway the judges in a close stand-up battle.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Pace vs. Persistence: Pinas will seek an early knockout, while Schultz aims to slow the action and drag the fight into deeper waters.
• Striker vs. Wrestler: Expect Pinas to keep distance and pepper with kicks and overhand rights; Schultz will hunt takedowns and punish against the fence.
• Experience Factor: Schultz’s two UFC fights grant him octagon composure; Pinas’s lightning debut may counterbalance Schultz’s ring savvy.

In this clash of styles, Pinas’s knockout artistry meets Schultz’s grinding resilience. The outcome will hinge on whether Pinas can maintain takedown defense long enough to land heavy strikes, or if Schultz can blunt the early storm and turn it into a grappling clinic.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Damian Pinas (Favorite): Ranges from –280 (BetOnline.ag, BetUS) to –295 (BetRivers).
• Wes Schultz (Underdog): Ranges from +225 (BetRivers) to +240 (BetOnline.ag).

As things stand roughly one week out, Damian Pinas is firmly installed as the betting favorite, while Wes Schultz carries underdog status. At most sportsbooks, you’ll need to wager around $280 to win $100 backing Pinas, whereas a $100 bet on Schultz returns at least $225–$240 in profit.

Line Movement & History

A look at the odds history reveals minor shifts rather than dramatic swings:

• Pinas: Opened at –280 (BetOnline.ag, 09:17 UTC) and briefly ticked down to –285 (Bovada) before sportsbooks like BetRivers pushed him to –295.
• Schultz: Debuted at +240 (BetOnline.ag) then dipped to +230 (BetUS) and settled as low as +225 (BetRivers) before rebounding slightly to +235 at Bovada and DraftKings.

Overall, the market has tightened slightly in favor of Pinas, indicating bettors have leaned into the young Surinamese striker. Schultz’s line movement suggests some confidence backing the American as the underdog, but not enough to shift him below +220.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite (Pinas): BetOnline.ag and BetUS both offer Pinas at –280, the least-negative line across major books. That’s your best value if you’re convinced he secures a finish.
• Underdog (Schultz): BetOnline.ag has Schultz at +240, the highest underdog payout available. For bettors chasing an upset, that represents the top return on investment.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

• Damian Pinas (–280): A $1,000 wager would yield approximately $357 in profit, for a total return of about $1,357.
• Wes Schultz (+240): A $1,000 bet nets roughly $2,400 profit, for a total payout of around $3,400.

Implied Probabilities

• Damian Pinas: ~73% implied chance to win
• Wes Schultz: ~27% implied chance to win

These percentages reflect the market’s consensus—Pinas enters as a substantial favorite, but Schultz still carries enough juice on the underdog line to reward risk‐takers handsomely.

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Whether you side with the red corner’s dynamic striker or back the blue‐corner underdog to pull off an upset, knowing where to shop for lines and understanding the slight ebb and flow of odds can be the difference between a good bet and a great one. Remember, small line differences across sportsbooks can translate to real dollars in your pocket.