Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina Fight Analysis
Introduction
The highly anticipated middleweight clash between Ryan Gandra and Jose Daniel Medina is set to kick off the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh on Saturday, February 28, 2026, at the iconic Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. The bout is scheduled to begin at 22:00 UTC, marking an electrifying start to what promises to be one of the most action-packed nights of the 2026 UFC calendar.
Venue & Timing
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh
- Date: February 28, 2026
- Stage: Preliminary Card
- Location: Arena CDMX, México D.F., CDMX, Mexico
- Local Time (UTC): 22:00 (prelims)
The Arena CDMX, with its storied history and capacity crowd, will provide a raucous backdrop for two fighters chasing very different narratives. On one side, Ryan Gandra, a 30-year-old Brazilian phenom, makes his UFC debut after turning heads on the regional circuit. On the other, Jose Daniel Medina, a 34-year-old veteran from Santa Cruz, Bolivia, looks to reverse a three-fight slide and reestablish himself as a force in the middleweight division.
The Favorite: Ryan Gandra (-550)
Ryan Gandra arrives in Mexico City as the overwhelming betting favorite, priced around -550 by top sportsbooks such as DraftKings, BetRivers, Bovada, BetUS, and BetOnline.ag. Standing in at 184 pounds with a pristine 1–0–0 UFC record, Gandra boasts exceptional striking efficiency (52% significant strike accuracy) and staunch defense (79% significant strike defense). His lightning-quick average fight time (2:51) underscores a reputation for explosive starts and rapid finishes. With no takedown attempts recorded under the UFC banner and a perfect 100% takedown defense, Gandra’s polished stand-up arsenal and undefeated status have oddsmakers installing him as an intimidating roadblock for any newcomer.
The Underdog: Jose Daniel Medina (+410)
In contrast, Jose Daniel Medina enters as a true underdog at approximately +410, a consensus across DraftKings, BetRivers, Bovada, BetUS, and BetOnline.ag. Despite his edge in knockout power (8 KOs in 11 career victories) and an impressive six first-round finishes, Medina has stumbled in his last three outings—falling via unanimous decision, KO/TKO, and submission. His grappling metrics (33% takedown accuracy, 28% takedown defense) suggest vulnerabilities against elite wrestlers, though his heavy hands and six-year professional experience cannot be discounted. Medina’s resilience and finishing instinct make him a live longshot capable of capitalizing on a single opening.
As the lights dim and the crowd roars, the contrast between Gandra’s UFC-debut hype and Medina’s redemption arc sets the stage for a classic clash of styles: explosive newcomer vs. seasoned finisher. In this middleweight showdown, will Gandra’s polished striking and defensive mastery overwhelm Bolivia’s brawling veteran, or will Medina’s knockout prowess shock the world and pull off a monumental upset? Read on for a deep dive into each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and key betting angles.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Ryan Gandra
Background & Bio
- Age: 30
- Country: Brazil
- Fighting Style: (Not officially listed) – Projects as a precision striker with strong defensive instincts
- UFC Debut: Feb. 28, 2026 at UFC Fight Night in Mexico City
- Pro Record: 1–0–0 (Undefeated)
Recent Form
Ryan Gandra arrives in the Octagon as a promotional newcomer with an unblemished 1–0 professional record. While he has no prior UFC fights, his regional résumé and brief pro history showcase a fighter who wastes no time: his lone recorded contest ended in decision victory, and his average fight time sits at just 2:51. Gandra’s lightning-quick pace and confident stand-up have earned him high praise on the Brazilian circuit, prompting oddsmakers to install him at -550 favorite status across major sportsbooks.
Strengths
- Striking Efficiency (52%): Gandra lands over half of his significant strikes, indicating crisp, well-timed shots.
- Striking Defense (79%): He successfully avoids nearly four out of five incoming significant strikes, a surreal rate for any middleweight.
- Takedown Defense (100%): No opponent has overcome Gandra’s sprawl, suggesting a level of wrestling defense beyond his limited fight experience.
- Pace & Pressure: His sub-three-minute average fight time underscores a style built on early aggression and forward movement.
Weaknesses
- Ground Game Inexperience: With 0% takedown accuracy and no submission wins, Gandra’s grappling remains untested—an area Medina may exploit.
- Finishing Track Record: Zero first-round finishes and no knockouts/submissions on record mean Gandra has yet to demonstrate true fight-ending power.
- Ring Rust Risk: Making a high-stakes UFC debut on Mexican soil could introduce nerves against a veteran opponent.
Jose Daniel Medina
Background & Bio
- Age: 34
- Country: Bolivia
- Fighting Style: Boxing specialist with heavy hands
- UFC Debut: Aug. 24, 2024
- Pro Record: 11–6–0
Recent Form
Medina has endured a tough stretch inside the UFC Octagon, dropping three consecutive fights:
- Aug. 24, 2024: Loss (Unanimous Decision) to Zachary Reese
- Mar. 29, 2025: Loss (KO/TKO) to Ateba Gautier in Round 1
- Sep. 13, 2025: Loss (Submission) to Dusko Todorovic in Round 1
Despite his setbacks, Medina remains a seasoned veteran capable of explosive outcomes—his six first-round finishes and eight knockout wins speak to his one-punch threat.
Strengths
- Knockout Power: 8 of 11 victories by KO/TKO; a single opening blow can change the fight instantly.
- First-Round Finisher: More than half of his wins end in the opening five minutes, pressuring opponents from the outset.
- Experience Edge: Eleven UFC-level fights (11–6), familiarity with high-pressure environments.
Weaknesses
- Striking Accuracy (37%): Medina lands well under half of his attempted strikes, leaving openings for counterattacks.
- Striking Defense (47%): He absorbs over half of significant strikes thrown his way, a dangerous deficit against elite strikers.
- Grappling Deficiencies:
- Takedown Accuracy (33%): Limited ability to initiate wrestling phases.
- Takedown Defense (28%): Struggles to keep fights standing, vulnerable to wrestlers and grapplers.
- Recent Slide: Three straight defeats—by decision, knockout, and submission—indicate holes in cardio, chin, and submission defense.
This middleweight matchup pits the hyped, technically sound debutant Ryan Gandra against the hardened veteran Jose Daniel Medina. Gandra’s precision striking and ironclad defense will be tested by Medina’s power hands and championship-level toughness. As styles collide, each fighter’s strengths and vulnerabilities will dictate whether the forecasted favorite remains unbeaten or the underdog rewrites his narrative with a career-defining upset.
Odds and Betting History
Current Betting Odds
Heading into UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh, the betting market has firmly established Ryan Gandra as the heavy favorite and Jose Daniel Medina as the underdog in this middleweight showdown.
- Ryan Gandra: –550 (DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, BetOnline.ag)
- Jose Daniel Medina: +410 (DraftKings, BetRivers)
At these lines, Gandra is installed at roughly –550, meaning bettors must risk $550 to win $100. Medina, by contrast, sits at +410, where a $100 wager returns $410 in profit. This creates a gulf of 960 points between the favorite and underdog, underscoring oddsmakers’ belief that Gandra will control the action on debut.
Best Sportsbook Lines
- For backing Medina, the top line is +410 at both DraftKings and BetRivers—offering the highest return on your risk.
- For supporting Gandra, the most favorable price is –550 at DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, and BetOnline.ag—slightly better than BetRivers’ –560.
Line Movement & Trends
A look at the opening and current odds reveals subtle but telling shifts in the market as bettors digest both fighters’ credentials:
Ryan Gandra
- Feb. 15: BetRivers opened Gandra at –500
- Feb. 16: BetRivers adjusted him to –560—a sign of heavy early money on the Brazilian newcomer
- BetOnline.ag: Early line of –600 (Feb. 12) has since settled in at –550 (Feb. 16), indicating sportsbooks trimmed vigorish slightly as competing books competed for action
Overall, Gandra’s line has moved slightly in his favor, reflecting confidence in his superior striking metrics and unblemished professional record.
Jose Daniel Medina
- Feb. 12: BetOnline.ag opened Medina at +425
- Feb. 13: BetOnline.ag trimmed to +420
- Feb. 16: BetOnline.ag further shortened to +400, while BetRivers jumped from +370 to +410
Medina’s line movements suggest mixed sentiment: some sportsbooks have made him a bigger longshot (+410), while others have offered him shorter odds (+400) as professionals weigh his proven knockout power against recent losses.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
If you’re sizing up a $1,000 bet, here’s what you can expect in total payout (stake + profit) and the implied chance of victory, based on today’s lines:
-
Betting $1,000 on Ryan Gandra at –550
- Total payout: $1,182 (includes your $1,000 stake and $182 profit)
- Implied win probability: ~85%
-
Betting $1,000 on Jose Daniel Medina at +410
- Total payout: $5,100 (includes your $1,000 stake and $4,100 profit)
- Implied win probability: ~20%
These figures highlight why the market views Gandra as the dominant pick—his implied chances are sky-high, but the return on investment is modest. Conversely, Medina offers enormous upside for a $1,000 wager, though bettors must overcome long odds.
Whether you’re chasing a safe, smaller return on Gandra or targeting a huge payday on Medina, understanding these line movements, best sportsbook offerings, and potential payouts is crucial. As fight week unfolds, keep an eye on how sharp money and public wagers continue to tweak the lines—and remember that the biggest value often comes when you identify which side the consensus has overlooked.
AI Pick: Ryan Gandra
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