Winner: Edgar Chairez
Confidence Score: 68Edgar Chairez is the younger fighter at 29 compared to Felipe Bunes at 35, which is a significant factor in flyweight where athleticism and speed are crucial. Chairez has a notable reach advantage (71" arm, 40" leg) over Bunes (69" arm, 38.5" leg), which is historically meaningful in this division—fighters with a 2+ inch reach advantage win at a higher rate in similar matchups. Both are dangerous finishers with 9 first-round finishes each, but Chairez has a more balanced finishing profile (4 KO, 8 sub) versus Bunes' heavy submission focus. Bunes has a better significant strike accuracy (51% vs 44%), but his defense is only slightly better (45% vs 43%). Importantly, Bunes' takedown defense (40%) is below average for the division, and Chairez's longer limbs can help in grappling exchanges. Recent performance trends show both have mixed results, but Chairez is less shopworn given his age and has shown improvement against younger, more dynamic opponents in the UFC. Historically, fighters with Chairez's age, reach, and finishing profile have outperformed older submission specialists like Bunes in three-round flyweight main card bouts. Chairez's freestyle approach, physical advantages, and youth make him the more likely winner, though the lack of wrestling/takedown threat (0% accuracy) tempers the confidence.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.
