Winner: Melquizael Costa
Confidence Score: 67Melquizael Costa is on a strong win streak, having finished four of his last five fights (including two first-round finishes and two submissions). At 29, he is younger and fresher than Dan Ige, who is 34 and has more UFC mileage. Costa's significant strike accuracy (50%) and defense (55%) are slightly better than Ige's (45% accuracy, 56% defense), and Costa's finishing rate in recent fights (KO/TKO and submissions) shows a dangerous, well-rounded game. Costa also boasts a reach advantage (same arm reach but longer legs), and his takedown accuracy (38%) and defense (58%) are both higher than Ige's (26% and 57%, respectively). While Ige has faced tougher ranked opposition and is more proven at the elite level, historical data shows younger, surging fighters with similar statistical edges and win streaks have a solid success rate in these matchups. Costa's momentum, finishing ability, and statistical edges make him the slight favorite, though Ige's experience and durability keep the confidence below 70%.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.
