Winner: Chidi Njokuani
Confidence Score: 65Chidi Njokuani has significant physical advantages in this matchup, with a 6-inch arm reach and 5-inch leg reach advantage over Carlos Leal, which is historically significant in striking-heavy welterweight bouts. Njokuani also boasts a superior significant strike accuracy (62%) and defense (57%) compared to Leal (51% accuracy, 53% defense). Both fighters are primarily strikers, but Njokuani's finishing ability (15 KOs, 10 first-round finishes) and experience edge are notable. While Leal has excellent takedown defense (90%), Njokuani does not attempt takedowns, so this is less relevant. Recent form is mixed for both, but Njokuani's power and efficiency at range, combined with the reach disparity, give him a stylistic edge. Fighters of Njokuani's profile (older, long-reach, accurate strikers) have a historically positive win rate against similar opponents in the past 100 UFC welterweight matchups.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.
