Juliana Miller vs Carli Judice: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Juliana Miller vs Carli Judice fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, February 21, 2026, the UFC lands in Houston, Texas, for Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez at the Toyota Center. The Preliminary Card, set to begin at approximately 6:00 PM CT, features a pivotal women’s flyweight clash between Juliana Miller and Carli Judice. Both 125-pound contenders will look to make a statement under the bright lights of the Toyota Center, as they battle for momentum early in the evening and chase a spot on the main card.

Venue & Timing

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
• Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
• Time: Preliminary Card at 6:00 PM CT (22:00 UTC)
• Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, United States

Fighter Snapshot

Carli Judice (5-2-0) enters as the clear favorite on most sportsbooks, with -450 odds (BetOnline.ag, BetUS) reflecting her recent knockout spree. The 26-year-old Lafayette native boasts:

• 5 wins by strikes (100% of career victories)
• 4 first-round finishes
• 52% significant strike accuracy and 78% takedown defense

Judice’s explosive power and finishing instincts have earned her rapid ascension in the women’s flyweight division since her UFC debut in June 2024.

Opposite her stands Juliana Miller (5-3-0), listed as the underdog at +350 (BetOnline.ag) despite a well-rounded skill set. The 28-year-old San Diego product offers:

• 3 submission wins, highlighting her grappling pedigree
• 39% takedown accuracy and 44% takedown defense
• A balanced striking game with 44% significant strike accuracy

Miller’s resilience was on full display in her last outing, a unanimous decision victory over Ivana Petrovic in May 2025. She’ll need that cardio and wrestling to neutralize Judice’s one-punch power.

Betting Odds & Implications

• Favorite: Carli Judice (–450 to –430)
• Underdog: Juliana Miller (+310 to +350)

Judice’s jaw-rattling knockouts have made her a heavy favorite across major books (BetMGM, Bovada, BetUS). Miller, however, presents value at +350 for bettors who believe her grappling and durability can last beyond the opening exchanges. Given Judice’s tendency to chase quick finishes (four in Round 1) and Miller’s ability to control pace on the mat, expect sharp movement in the live lines if the fight extends past the first frame.

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This Juliana Miller vs Carli Judice showdown on the prelims promises a classic heavy-handed striker versus grappling specialist script. With contrasting styles, divergent career trajectories and clear betting narratives, this fight is a must-watch for fans and value-hunters alike.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Juliana Miller vs Carli Judice can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Carli Judice Profile

Age: 26 | Country: United States (Lafayette, LA) | Fighting Style: Power Striking & Takedown Defense
UFC Record: 5-2-0

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

• Jul 19, 2025: Win vs. Nicolle Caliari – KO/TKO Round 3 (1:30)
• Mar 15, 2025: Win vs. Yuneisy Duben – KO/TKO Round 1 (1:40)
• Jun 15, 2024: Loss vs. Gabriella Fernandes – Split Decision

Strengths:

• Knockout Power: All 5 career wins by strikes; 4 finishes in Round 1 demonstrate one-punch stopping ability.
• Striking Accuracy (52%): Lands over half of her significant strikes, above flyweight average (~44%).
• Strike Defense (55%): Defends more than half of opponents’ significant strikes, limiting damage.
• Takedown Defense (78%): Exceptional at keeping the fight standing, forcing opponents to engage in striking exchanges.

Weaknesses:

• Ground Offense: 0 career submission wins and only 25% takedown accuracy indicate limited grappling aggression.
• Cardio Durability: While she’s shown stamina to close fights (three-round split decision), a prolonged battle against high-pace wrestlers could expose gas tank concerns.

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Juliana Miller Profile

Age: 28 | Country: United States (San Diego, CA) | Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA with Grappling Emphasis
UFC Record: 5-3-0

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights):

• May 3, 2025: Win vs. Ivana Petrovic – Unanimous Decision
• Aug 12, 2023: Loss vs. Luana Santos – KO/TKO Round 1 (3:41)
• Mar 18, 2023: Loss vs. Veronica Hardy – Unanimous Decision
• Aug 6, 2022: Win vs. Brogan Walker – KO/TKO Round 3 (3:57)

Strengths:

• Submission Game: 3 career submission victories, showcasing diverse grappling and BJJ transitions.
• Takedown Offense (39%): Above-average effectiveness in getting fights to the mat.
• Durability & Cardio: Has gone the distance twice in her last three UFC bouts, showing conditioning and fight IQ.
• Versatility: Balanced mix of stand-up and ground skills keeps opponents guessing.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense (36%): Below-average, absorbing over 60% of incoming significant strikes; vulnerable to power punchers.
• Takedown Defense (44%): Struggles to stop takedown attempts, potentially exposing her to ground control.
• Finishing Rate: Only 2 first-round finishes; less one-punch power compared to Judice.

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Stylistic Clash & Key Matchup Dynamics

• Power vs. Grappling: Judice’s knockout-heavy style contrasts sharply with Miller’s submission-oriented approach. If Judice can impose stand-up and land early, she may secure another highlight-reel finish.
• Takedown Scenarios: Miller must exploit her 39% takedown success and target Judice’s 25% weakness in shot entries. Securing top control will neutralize Judice’s power.
• Pace & Cardio: Should Miller weather the early storm—Judice averages 10:48 fight time but often ends fights quickly—she could drag the bout into deep waters where her endurance and technical wrestling prevail.
• Striking Exchanges: Judice’s superior 52% striking accuracy versus Miller’s 44% suggests a clear edge in stand-up. Miller will need to use footwork, feints and level changes to avoid Judice’s power shots.

This bout is a classic striker vs. grappler showdown. Judice’s aggressive knockout style collides with Miller’s methodical ground attack, creating a compelling chess match for fans and bettors alike.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Favorite: Carli Judice at –450 (BetOnline.ag, BetUS), –430 (Bovada), –400 (BetMGM)
• Underdog: Juliana Miller at +350 (BetOnline.ag), +339 (BetUS), +320 (Bovada), +310 (BetMGM)

The gap between Judice and Miller is stark. Judice’s shortest line (–450) implies roughly an 82% chance to win, while Miller’s best payout (+350) implies about a 22% chance. For bettors seeking maximum value, BetMGM offers the juiciest line on the favorite (–400) and BetOnline.ag pays out the most on the underdog (+350).

Line Movement & Swings

A look at how lines have shifted shows moderate but telling activity:

• Carli Judice:
– Opened around –400 on BetOnline.ag and Bovada on February 8.
– Saw a slide to –450 on BetOnline.ag and BetUS by February 9, as money poured in on her power-punching reputation.
– Bovada toggled between –400 and –430 several times, reflecting back-and-forth action in early markets.
– BetMGM has held firm at –400, suggesting balanced books there.

• Juliana Miller:
– Began around +300 on February 7–8 (BetOnline.ag, Bovada).
– Climbed to +350 on BetOnline.ag and +339 on BetUS by February 9, indicating some contrarian bets backing Miller’s grappling advantage.
– Bovada fluctuated between +300 and +320, while BetMGM locked in at +310.

Overall, the biggest move is Judice’s shift from –400 to –450 on two books, and Miller’s bump from +300 to +350 on BetOnline.ag. These swings suggest early confidence in Judice’s finishing power, tempered by a sprinkle of support for Miller’s ground game.

$1,000 Payout Scenarios

• Betting $1,000 on Carli Judice at –400 (BetMGM):
  • Potential profit: $250
  • Total payout: $1,250
• Betting $1,000 on Juliana Miller at +350 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Potential profit: $3,500
  • Total payout: $4,500

Best Books & Value Plays

• If you trust Judice’s striking—and want the highest return among favorites—BetMGM’s –400 line is the spot to back her.
• If you’re chasing the bigger payday on an underdog, BetOnline.ag’s +350 on Miller delivers the best bang for your buck.

With Judice commanding over an 80% implied win probability and Miller hanging around 20–25%, the smart money depends on your risk tolerance. Conservative bettors lean on Judice’s –400; value seekers chase Miller’s +350. Either way, these lines tell a compelling story of power versus grappling—and where the money is flowing heading into fight night.