Winner: Muin Gafurov
Confidence Score: 74Muin Gafurov is the more well-rounded and proven UFC fighter in this matchup. He has a strong finishing rate with 10 KOs and 7 submissions, and a notable 14 first-round finishes, highlighting his explosiveness and ability to capitalize early. His striking defense (53%) and takedown defense (70%) are significantly better than Jakub Wiklacz's (36% and 29%, respectively), which is critical since Wiklacz is a grappler with no knockouts and relies heavily on submissions. Gafurov's sambo background and experience against higher-level competition, combined with his ability to avoid takedowns and land his own, make him a stylistic problem for Wiklacz. Historically, fighters with Gafurov's profile—solid takedown defense, strong striking, and high finishing rates—tend to win against submission-heavy, low-striking-output grapplers, especially when the grappler lacks takedown accuracy (Wiklacz is 0%). Gafurov's slightly younger age and longer UFC tenure also favor him, making him the more reliable pick in this matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.
