Winner: Gregory Rodrigues
Confidence Score: 65Gregory Rodrigues has a significant size advantage in height, reach, and leg reach, which is historically beneficial in middleweight matchups. Both fighters are Brazilian grapplers, but Rodrigues has faced and beaten higher-level competition, as reflected in his recent win over Roman Kopylov and solid performances against top-15 opponents. Rodrigues boasts a higher takedown defense (75% vs. 61%) and better takedown accuracy (35% vs. 24%), giving him a wrestling edge. His striking accuracy (52%) and defense (51%) are also slightly better or comparable to Ferreira's. Ferreira is dangerous early with a high rate of first-round finishes, but Rodrigues' durability and ability to win late rounds (average fight time nearly 9 minutes vs. Ferreira's 6.5) suggest he can weather early storms and take over as the fight progresses. Historically, fighters with Rodrigues' physical and statistical profile win a majority of these stylistic matchups, especially when they have the edge in experience and physicality.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.
