Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. Odds & Analysis | UFC 326

Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. fight analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight division heats up on Saturday, March 7, 2026, when Raul Rosas Jr. takes on veteran Rob Font on the Main Card of UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2. The action kicks off at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the early prelims beginning at 6:00 p.m. PT, leading into the Main Card at approximately 9:00 p.m. PT (12:00 a.m. ET). This clash of styles, experience and youthful exuberance is one of the most intriguing undercard battles on the UFC 326 docket, and bettors are already lining up on both sides of the ledger.

From a betting perspective, Raul Rosas Jr. enters this contest as the favorite, with the latest lines hovering around -190 to -198 across major sportsbooks such as DraftKings, Bovada and BetOnline.ag. The 20-year-old Mexican prospect has stormed through the promotion with a perfect 5–0 UFC record, showcasing a dangerous mix of submissions (6 career) and first-round finishes (6 total). His ground game, coupled with a 45% significant strike accuracy and a 41% takedown success rate, makes him a formidable opponent for any bantamweight.

In contrast, Rob Font slots in as the underdog on fight night, with money lines sitting between +145 and +165. At 38 years old, the Puerto Rican-American striker brings a wealth of Octagon experience—31 UFC bouts to his name and wins over top contenders like Jose Aldo, Cody Garbrandt and Cody Stamann. Font’s striking pedigree is reinforced by a 45% significant strike accuracy and solid takedown defense (44%), but questions remain about his durability and cardio against a younger, more aggressive wrestler.

This matchup represents a classic stylistic clash: the calculated, plodding striker versus the dynamic, submission-hungry grappler. Rosas Jr. has shown composure beyond his years, leveraging a freestyle wrestling base to control opponents on the mat and capitalize with chokes and armbars. Meanwhile, Font will seek to keep the fight standing, use his reach advantage (71.5″ arm reach to Rosas’s 67″) and pepper the young challenger with precise counterstrikes.

As the UFC’s capital of combat sports, Las Vegas provides the perfect backdrop for this generational showdown. With a capacity crowd expected at T-Mobile Arena and millions more tuning in across ESPN+ and pay-per-view, the stakes couldn’t be higher for both men. Bettors will want to factor in Rosas Jr.’s rising stock, red-hot momentum and wrestling acumen, alongside Font’s veteran savvy, durability and championship-level experience.

In this analysis, we break down the key metrics, form lines, stylistic advantages and prop-bet opportunities that could swing the odds on fight night. Whether you’re backing the up-and-coming favorite in Rosas Jr. or fade-betting the seasoned underdog in Rob Font, you’ll find all the data and insights you need to make an informed wager. Stay tuned as we dive deeper into performance stats, recent form and tactical breakdowns to determine where the smart money lies.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

Matchup and Individual Fighter Profiles

Raul Rosas Jr. – The Rising Prospect

Age: 20 • Country: Mexico • Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling

Raul Rosas Jr. burst onto the UFC scene in December 2022 and quickly built a reputation as one of the most dynamic young bantamweights. Born in Clovis, California, but fighting under the Mexican flag, Rosas blends a high-level wrestling base with ever-improving striking. He boasts an 11-1 professional record, featuring 6 submission victories and 6 first-round finishes across all organizations.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Win vs. Vince Morales (Decision – Unanimous)
• Win vs. Aoriqileng (Decision – Unanimous)
• Win vs. Ricky Turcios (Submission – R2, 2:22)
• Win vs. Terrence Mitchell (KO/TKO – R1, 0:54)
• Loss vs. Christian Rodriguez (Decision – Unanimous)

After dropping his UFC debut to Christian Rodriguez, Rosas has responded with four straight victories, demonstrating improving composure and polish in every phase. He has alternated between smothering grappling displays and sharp striking flurries, culminating in both submission and knockout victories.

Strengths:

• Takedown Offense (41% accuracy): Rosas uses relentless level changes to secure control, often finishing opponents on the mat.
• Submission Prowess: Six career subs, including slick chokes and armbars, make him a constant threat once he drags the fight to the canvas.
• First-Round Finishes: Half of his wins come in round one, reflecting his ability to seize momentum early.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense (0% recorded): Although sample size is small, any lapses in wrestling defense could be exploited by a veteran like Font.
• Striking Power: With only 2 career KOs, Rosas relies more on volume and pressure than one-punch knockout threat.
• Experience: At just 20 years old and with 6 UFC fights, he has yet to face the full spectrum of elite bantamweights.

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Rob Font – The Seasoned Veteran

Age: 38 • Country: Puerto Rico (fighting out of USA) • Fighting Style: Striker

Rob Font has been a fixture in the UFC’s bantamweight division since his 2014 debut. With a 22-9 record, Font holds wins over former champions and top contenders, showcasing crisp boxing, a diverse kicking arsenal and appreciable power (9 KOs).

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Loss vs. David Martinez (Decision – Unanimous)
• Win vs. Jean Matsumoto (Decision – Split)
• Win vs. Kyler Phillips (Decision – Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Decision – Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Cory Sandhagen (Decision – Unanimous)

Font is coming off a decision loss to rising star David Martinez, but he enters this bout riding two straight unanimous decision victories. He has demonstrated his veteran savvy by neutralizing takedown attempts and landing precise counters against aggressive foes.

Strengths:

• Significant Strike Defense (57%): Elite ability to evade and block incoming strikes, forcing opponents to overcommit.
• Reach Advantage (71.5″ arm reach): Utilizes long jabs and straights to control range.
• Takedown Defense (44%): More reliable than his counterpart, Font can keep the fight standing where he is most comfortable.

Weaknesses:

• Age & Durability: At 38, his pace may dip in later rounds, and his chin has been tested by heavy hitters.
• Takedown Offense (30%): Lacks the wrestling pedigree to consistently threaten grapplers, limiting his ability to mix levels.
• Lack of Finishing in Recent Fights: His last five bouts all went the distance, suggesting he may struggle to close the show against a relentless opponent.

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This stylistic clash pits Rosas Jr.’s youthful wrestling and submission arsenal against Font’s veteran striking acumen and defensive mastery. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down how each fighter’s strengths align with—or clash against—the other’s vulnerabilities, helping you pinpoint the smartest bets for UFC 326’s bantamweight showdown.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Raul Rosas Jr. holds the edge as the favorite in this bantamweight showdown, while Rob Font enters as the clear underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the money lines across three top sportsbooks:

• Bovada
– Raul Rosas Jr.: –170
– Rob Font: +145

• DraftKings
– Raul Rosas Jr.: –198
– Rob Font: +164

• BetOnline.ag
– Raul Rosas Jr.: –190
– Rob Font: +165

The gap between Rosas Jr. (favorite) and Font (underdog) is substantial, with Rosas Jr. commanding roughly a 6-in-10 implied chance to win versus Font’s 4-in-10 probability. For bettors seeking the best value today, Bovada’s –170 on Rosas Jr. offers the most favorable price on the favorite, while BetOnline.ag’s +165 on Font yields the largest potential upside on the underdog.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

A close look at the odds history reveals notable swings over the past week:

• Raul Rosas Jr. opened around –198 to –205 on DraftKings and Bovada, then drifted as low as –190 before settling back at –170 on Bovada. That move toward a shorter favorite line indicates mounting confidence from bettors in Rosas Jr.’s wrestling dominance and finishing ability.
• Rob Font initially debuted around +168 on Bovada and +170 on DraftKings, then slid to +145 as the public poured money in expecting him to out-strike and outlast the younger Rosas. The shift from +168 to +145 is significant for an underdog, reflecting both fan backing and respect for Font’s veteran savvy.

These fluctuations suggest early sharp money on Rob Font softened his longshot price, while later support for Rosas Jr. pushed his odds even shorter. Sharp bettors appear split, but the line movement favors the favorite as fight night approaches.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re putting down $1,000 on fight night, here’s what you can expect:

• Bet $1,000 on Raul Rosas Jr. at –170
  • Profit: $588
  • Total Payout: $1,588
  • Implied Win Probability: ~63%

• Bet $1,000 on Rob Font at +165
  • Profit: $1,650
  • Total Payout: $2,650
  • Implied Win Probability: ~38%

Best Sportsbook to Bet

• For the Favorite (Rosas Jr.): Bovada’s –170 line is the softest you’ll find, maximizing payout on a winning wager.
• For the Underdog (Font): BetOnline.ag’s +165 delivers the highest return on a Font upset.

By shopping these three books—Bovada, DraftKings and BetOnline.ag—you can lock in the sharpest lines for either fighter. As the line movement shows, markets are active and volatile. Keep an eye on late shifts: a sudden drift on Rosas Jr. could open a window to grab a more attractive price on the favorite, while any slipback on Font could juice the underdog even further.

With this landscape in mind, weigh your risk tolerance, model confidence and the value you place on each fighter’s path to victory. Whether you back the seasoned veteran or the surging teenager, the best sportsbooks are standing by with competitive prices and smooth wagering experiences.