UFC 326 Johnson vs Todorovic Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Donte Johnson vs Dusko Todorovic fight analysis

Fight Details

Get ready for an explosive Middleweight clash on the Preliminary Card of UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2. This bout between Donte Johnson and Dusko Todorovic is set to take place on March 7, 2026 (local time) at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The preliminary action kicks off at 7 p.m. PT, with Johnson vs. Todorovic slated for roughly 8 p.m. PT, depending on how the earlier fights unfold. UFC 326 promises to deliver high-octane action, but this Middleweight showdown stands out for its dramatic styles, contrasting records, and significant betting intrigue.

Fighter Profiles

• Donte “JDZ” Johnson (7-0-0, United States)
  • Height: 5’8” (68 in)
  • Reach: 6’2” (74 in)
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Debut: Nov. 1, 2025
  • Record highlights: 6 knockouts, 6 first-round finishes, 100% takedown accuracy

• Dusko Todorovic (13-6-0, Serbia/Montenegro)
  • Height: 6’1” (73 in)
  • Reach: 6’2” (74 in)
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Debut: Aug. 27, 2019
  • Record highlights: 8 knockouts, 4 submissions, 8 first-round finishes

The Favorite and the Underdog

Oddsmakers have made Donte Johnson the clear favorite heading into this bout. Across top sportsbooks:

• DraftKings lists Johnson at -380, while
• BetOnline.ag offers him at -350 to -360,
• Bovada posts him at -360.

In contrast, Dusko Todorovic lines up as the underdog:

• +280 at Bovada,
• +285 at BetOnline.ag,
• +300 at DraftKings.

This price disparity reflects Johnson’s unblemished 7–0 record, devastating finishing rate, and perfect takedown efficiency, coupled with his relative youth and rapid ascent since debuting just four months ago. Meanwhile, Todorovic brings more UFC experience (19 fights), a diverse finish arsenal, and the resilience built over years on the global stage, but he’s 2–3 in his last five outings and carries damage from back-to-back knockout defeats.

What to Watch For

• Johnson’s pressure and finishing instincts: He’s ended every UFC appearance in the first two rounds, showcasing heavy hands, relentless forward movement, and crisp wrestling entries.
• Todorovic’s counter-striking and submissions: Boasting a 58% striking accuracy and four career submissions, he’s vulnerable under sustained volume but lethal when he connects cleanly or scrambles on the mat.
• Cardio and pace: Johnson’s average fight time is just 3:45, while Todorovic’s bouts last 7:41. Will Todorovic weather the early storm and drag Johnson into deeper waters?

With stakes high and contrasting skill sets, this matchup promises fireworks. In the next sections, we’ll break down each fighter’s key strengths and weaknesses, analyze the critical striking and grappling metrics, and provide betting strategies for both conservative and adventurous punters. Stay tuned for a full Donte Johnson vs Dusko Todorovic fight breakdown!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Donte Johnson vs Dusko Todorovic can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

This Middleweight showdown pits the unbeaten Donte Johnson (7-0-0) against the seasoned Serbian contender Dusko Todorovic (13-6-0). Taking place on the Preliminary Card of UFC 326 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, this clash of styles presents a classic striker-vs-all-rounder dynamic. Johnson arrives as a heavy favorite thanks to his relentless pressure and flawless finishes, while Todorovic hopes to capitalize on his power, submission chops and veteran savvy.

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Donte Johnson Profile

Background & Fighting Style

• Age: 26
• Country: United States (Fond du Lac, WI)
• Height/Reach: 5’8” / 6’2”
• Fighting Style: MMA with heavy emphasis on pressuring striking and high-percentage wrestling

Recent Form

• UFC Debut (Nov. 1, 2025): Win vs. Sedriques Dumas – Submission, R2 (1:25)
• Overall Pro Record: 7-0-0, with every win by finish (6 KOs, 1 submission)
• Streak: Six first-round finishes before his most recent second-round submission

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: 100% of UFC wins end by stoppage; 85% career finish rate
• Striking Accuracy: Lands 64% of significant strikes—elite level for Middleweight
• Wrestling & Takedowns: Perfect 100% takedown success, blending takedowns into cage pressure
• Cardio & Pace: Maintains relentless output, averaging just 3:45 per fight

Weaknesses

• Experience Gap: Only one UFC bout under his belt; untested beyond second round
• Chin & Durability: Has yet to face high-level power punchers defensively
• Reach Disadvantage: Shorter stature (5’8”) could be exploited by longer, rangier opponents

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Dusko Todorovic Profile

Background & Fighting Style

• Age: 31
• Country: Serbia (Born in Kotor, Montenegro)
• Height/Reach: 6’1” / 6’2”
• Fighting Style: Balanced MMA with heavy hands, submission hunting and occasional wrestling

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts)

1. Sep. 13, 2025: Win vs. Jose Daniel Medina – Submission, R1 (4:21)
2. May 31, 2025: Loss vs. Zachary Reese – Decision (Unanimous), R3
3. Nov. 9, 2024: Loss vs. Mansur Abdul Malik – KO/TKO, R1 (2:44)
4. Mar. 18, 2023: Loss vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – KO/TKO, R1 (1:52)
5. Oct. 15, 2022: Win vs. Jordan Wright – KO/TKO, R2 (3:12)

Strengths

• Finishing Diversity: Eight KOs and four submissions showcase multi-dimensional offense
• Striking Power: 58% significant strike accuracy; deadly when he lands clean shots
• Experience & Composure: Nineteen UFC fights provide championship-caliber seasoning
• First-Round Firepower: Eight career first-round finishes can end fights quickly

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: Allows 48% of opponent’s significant strikes—vulnerable under pressure
• Takedown Defense: Only 43% success rate defending takedowns; can be controlled on the mat
• Consistency Issues: Three knockout losses in five outings signal potential durability concerns
• Cardio Under Duress: Average fight time 7:41 with late-round fade if early offense fails

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In this matchup, Johnson’s flawless finishing meets Todorovic’s varied assault. Johnson will look to overwhelm with pace and wrestling entries, while Todorovic must use his power and experience to keep the fight standing and capitalize on any defensive lapses. The contrast in age, fight mileage, and statistical profiles sets the stage for an intriguing chess match under the bright lights of Vegas.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

Heading into UFC 326, the marketplace clearly favors Donte Johnson over Dusko Todorovic, but the underdog price on Todorovic still offers juicy upside. Here’s how the major books line up:

• Donte Johnson (Favorite)

  • DraftKings: -380
  • Bovada: -360
  • BetOnline.ag: -350

• Dusko Todorovic (Underdog)

  • DraftKings: +300
  • BetOnline.ag: +285
  • Bovada: +280

The gap between a -380 and a +300 line illustrates the gulf in perceived talent. Johnson’s undefeated 7–0 record and perfect takedown efficiency have sportsbooks installing him as a near 80% favorite. Meanwhile, Todorovic’s roller-coaster run and 2–3 skid in five bouts leave him priced as a +300 underdog at the sharpest book.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• If you’re backing Johnson, DraftKings at -380 maximizes your return on a side perceived as “sure thing.”
• If you’re rooting for the upset, DraftKings also leads with the highest underdog payout at +300.

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Line Movement & Trends

Tracking how these lines have shifted over the past week offers insight into public action and sharp money:

Donte Johnson

• BetOnline.ag: Opened around -400, eased gradually to -350.
• Bovada: Fluctuated from -390 down to -360.
• DraftKings: Currently steady at -380, indicating balanced early support.

These moves suggest heavy early money on Johnson, prompting books to trim his price from -400 to -350 on some platforms. The modest adjustments at DraftKings imply a consensus on his dominance.

Dusko Todorovic

• BetOnline.ag: Drifted from +300 to +285 as lines reacted to Johnson support.
• Bovada: Bounced between +295 and +280, ultimately settling at +280.
• DraftKings: Firm at +300, showing minimal sharp action against the dog.

Todorovic’s line compression from +300 to +280 on some books hints at a sprinkling of underdog bettors, but overall, the market remains skeptical of his upset chances.

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$1,000 Bets & Implied Odds

Here’s what you’d pocket on a $1,000 wager, plus each fighter’s implied win probability (based on current lines):

• Bet $1,000 on Donte Johnson at -380

  • Total Payout: $1,263 (includes your $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~79%

• Bet $1,000 on Dusko Todorovic at +300

  • Total Payout: $4,000 (includes your $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~25%

Despite Johnson’s heavyweight favorite status, a $1K play on Todorovic returns four times your money—tempting for those chasing big underdog pays. Conversely, locking in Johnson at -380 is about as close to a “lock” as betting gets in MMA, with an almost 8-in-10 chance credited by the books.

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Key Takeaway: Johnson’s line has tightened across most books, reflecting strong belief in his unbeaten run. Todorovic’s odds have softened slightly but remain anchored around +300 at the sharpest sportsbook. For value on the favorite, DraftKings is your go-to; for the dreamer’s payday on the dog, DraftKings again offers the richest +300 line.