Winner: Marwan Rahiki
Confidence Score: 62Marwan Rahiki is the younger, fresher fighter at 23, making his UFC debut with a strong statistical profile: 47% significant strike accuracy, 56% significant strike defense, and a perfect 100% takedown defense. He also possesses a notable reach advantage (72" arm, 42" leg) over Harry Hardwick, who has no listed reach and is coming off a KO/TKO loss in his UFC debut at age 31. Hardwick's striking accuracy (35%) and defense (40%) are both below average for the division, and he has shown no effective wrestling (0% takedown stats). Historically, debuting fighters with Rahiki's age, reach, and defensive metrics have a winning edge over older, less defensively sound opponents, especially when the latter are coming off a stoppage loss. While Rahiki is still unproven at the UFC level, his statistical advantages and Hardwick's vulnerabilities make him the more likely winner, though the pick is only moderately confident due to limited high-level sample size.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Emmett vs Vallejos can be found on the Emmett vs Vallejos event page.
