Winner: Marlon Vera
Confidence Score: 81Marlon Vera is the pick due to his elite UFC experience, proven durability, and versatile finishing ability. He holds significant advantages in reach (3-inch arm, 3-inch leg), and has a well-rounded skill set with 8 KO and 10 submission wins, making him dangerous both standing and on the ground. Vera's average fight time is higher, showing he can go deep into fights and maintain output. Although David Martinez is undefeated in the UFC and has impressive striking defense (68%) and KO power (10 KOs), he has not shown a grappling threat (0% takedown accuracy, 0 submission wins), and his UFC experience is very limited compared to Vera's long tenure against top competition. Historically, fighters in their early UFC run with Martinez's profile often struggle when stepping up to proven, ranked veterans with Vera's experience, reach, and grappling. Vera's 39% takedown accuracy and 10 submission wins suggest he can exploit Martinez's lack of grappling offense. While Martinez is a live underdog with power and youth (27 vs. Vera's 33), the data strongly favors Vera's experience, versatility, and ability to win in multiple ways.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marlon Vera vs David Martinez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.
