Winner: Farid Basharat
Confidence Score: 74Farid Basharat is undefeated (14-0) and has demonstrated a well-rounded MMA game with strong grappling (6 submission wins, 48% takedown accuracy, 73% takedown defense) and effective striking (52% accuracy, 60% defense). His recent wins over experienced UFC competition, including Chris Gutierrez and Taylor Lapilus, show his ability to implement a disciplined, control-heavy style over three rounds. Jean Matsumoto is talented and has a strong record (17-1), but his striking accuracy (41%) and defense (48%) are notably lower, and his takedown defense (54%) is a potential liability against a pressure wrestler/grappler like Basharat. Historically, fighters with Basharat's profile—undefeated, strong defensively, and with superior grappling metrics—win at a high rate in similar Bantamweight matchups, especially when facing less defensively sound Muay Thai stylists. Basharat's edge in reach, fight IQ, and experience against higher-level opposition give him the advantage, though Matsumoto's finishing ability and youth keep this from being a lock pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.
