Winner: Daniil Donchenko
Confidence Score: 68Daniil Donchenko has a significant statistical edge in key areas for this matchup. At 24 years old, he is a decade younger than Alex Morono, and younger fighters in the welterweight division with similar striking and defensive stats have historically performed well against older, more experienced opponents. Donchenko's significant strike accuracy (57%) and defense (72%) are both much higher than Morono's (40% accuracy, 56% defense), suggesting he will land more and absorb less. He also averages much shorter fight times, indicating a more aggressive and finishing-oriented style (9 KO wins, 5 first-round finishes), which has been effective against fighters with declining durability and slower output like Morono. Additionally, Donchenko's takedown defense (75%) is much better than Morono's (48%), and Morono's own takedown accuracy (24%) is low, making it unlikely he can control Donchenko on the ground. Historically, fighters with Donchenko's profile (young, accurate, defensively sound kickboxers with finishing ability) have a strong winning percentage over aging, volume-based veterans with declining defense. Unless Morono can use his experience and craft to drag Donchenko into deep waters, which is statistically less likely given Donchenko's recent form and finishing rate, this is Donchenko's fight to lose.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.
