Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

Get ready for an electrifying featherweight showdown as Venezuela’s hard‐hitting underdog Erik Silva (9-3-0) takes on American submission specialist Francis Marshall (8-3-0) on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh. This bout is set for Saturday, February 28, 2026, at the state-of-the-art Arena CDMX in México D.F. (Mexico City). The preliminary action kicks off at 10:00 PM GMT (4:00 PM CST local time), live on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.

Both fighters will enter the Octagon at 146 lb, each carrying momentum from recent outings. At stake is not only a spot on the main card, but also a chance to climb closer to featherweight contention. Silva, a UFC veteran since December 2022, boasts a blistering first-round finish rate of 78%, while Marshall brings a balanced skill set, highlighted by four submission victories and a versatile freestyle wrestling base.

Key Storylines

• Experience vs. Youth: At 36, Silva is the elder statesman in this matchup, leveraging nearly two decades of combat experience. Marshall, just 26, has spent his young career sharpening his grappling and cardio under the American Top Team banner.
• Finishing Ability: Silva has secured 7 first‐round finishes in his nine wins, showing a willingness to press the action and engage early. Marshall, although more methodical, has finished two opponents in round one and thrives in scrambles, boasting a 45% takedown accuracy.
• Striking Contrast: Silva steps in with an astonishing 70% significant strike accuracy, preferring volume and power to overwhelm foes. Marshall counters with disciplined defense (54% sig. strike defense) and is comfortable letting opponents chase before attempting takedown entries.

Betting Odds & Favorites

According to leading sportsbooks, Francis Marshall is the clear favorite across the board:

• BetUS: –550
• DraftKings: –520
• BetRivers: –530
• Bovada: –550

Erik Silva enters as a sizable underdog:

• BetUS: +399
• DraftKings: +390
• BetRivers: +390
• Bovada: +390

With such lopsided lines, the market clearly favors Marshall’s grappling and well-rounded game. However, Silva’s high finishing rate and punch-for-punch power make him a dangerous spoiler—and a tempting long-shot pick for value hunters.

As fight week unfolds in CDMX, both men will sharpen their tools for a clash that promises fireworks. Will the veteran knockout artist Silva defy the odds, or will the rising grappler Marshall assert his will and secure another victory? Stay tuned for what promises to be a can’t-miss featherweight battle on UFC Fight Night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup & Individual Profiles

Francis Marshall – The American Grappler

Age: 26 | Country: United States | Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling
UFC Record: 2-3 (Overall: 8-3-0)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Mar 2025: Loss vs. Mairon Santos Alves – Decision (Split)
• Aug 2024: Win vs. Dennis Buzukja – Decision (Split)
• Aug 2023: Loss vs. Isaac Dulgarian – KO/TKO (R1, 4:48)
• Apr 2023: Loss vs. William Gomis – Decision (Split)
• Dec 2022: Win vs. Marcelo Rojo – KO/TKO (R2, 1:14)

Strengths:

• Wrestling & Control: A 45% takedown accuracy and 67% takedown defense mark him as a difficult opponent to keep off the mat or take down himself.
• Submissions: Four career submission wins underscore his ability to capitalize on scrambles and ground exchanges.
• Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of nearly 12 minutes indicates he can maintain pace into championship rounds and shrug off early pressure.
• Striking Defense: A respectable 54% significant strike defense shows he can avoid or mitigate damage when pressured.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Output & Accuracy: At just 33% sig-strike accuracy, Marshall can struggle to convert volume into effective offense.
• Vulnerability to Power: His single KO win suggests limited one-punch knockout power—against heavy hitters he may be outgunned on the feet.
• Close Decision History: Three of his last five bouts went to split decision, a sign that he often narrowly wins or loses rounds rather than dominating.

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Erik Silva – The Venezuelan Finisher

Age: 36 | Country: Venezuela | Fighting Style: Striker / Wrestler Hybrid
UFC Record: 0-2 (Overall: 9-3-0)

Recent Form (Last 2 UFC Fights):

• Feb 2024: Loss vs. Muhammad Naimov – KO/TKO (R1, 0:44)
• Dec 2022: Loss vs. T.J. Brown – Submission (R3, 3:41)

Note: Prior to joining the UFC, Silva amassed a string of 7 first-round finishes, showcasing his aggressive style on the regional circuit.

Strengths:

• Finishing Prowess: Boasting 7 first-round finishes in nine wins, Silva is a constant early-fight threat.
• Striking Efficiency: An outstanding 70% significant strike accuracy means he lands the vast majority of his attempts—few strikers in the division boast that mark.
• Takedown Offense: With an 80% takedown accuracy, Silva can effectively blend wrestling setups with power shots, keeping opponents guessing.
• Quick Starts: His average fight time of just 5:19 indicates he seeks a finish immediately and rarely allows fights to drift.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: A low 40% significant strike defense suggests vulnerabilities to counter-strikers and volume punchers.
• Cardio Concerns: His rapid finishes mask endurance—if Marshall survives early onslaughts, Silva may fade in later rounds.
• Experience Gap at UFC Level: Two UFC losses by early stoppage highlight a steep adjustment curve against world-class competition.

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Tale of the Tape & Key Matchup Points

• Experience vs. Energy: Marshall’s superior UFC mileage and younger age counterbalance Silva’s regional finishing streak.
• Ground Game vs. Heavy Hands: Will Marshall be able to drag Silva into extended grappling exchanges, or will Silva’s explosive striking and takedowns keep the fight upright and end it early?
• Cardio & Endurance: This clash tests Silva’s ability to maintain pace if Marshall weathers the early storm, while Marshall must avoid Silva’s power bursts to bring the fight into deep waters.

This contrasting stylistic battle—Marshall’s methodical wrestling and durability versus Silva’s laser-focused aggression—makes this featherweight tilt one of the most intriguing on the preliminary card.

Odds & Betting History

Current Betting Odds

The market has made Francis Marshall a heavy favorite and Erik Silva a sizable underdog across every major sportsbook:

• Francis Marshall (Favorite)

  • BetUS: –550
  • DraftKings: –520
  • BetRivers: –530
  • Bovada: –550

• Erik Silva (Underdog)

  • BetUS: +399
  • DraftKings: +390
  • BetRivers: +390
  • BetOnline.ag: +400

The lines show a clear gap: Marshall is priced in the –520 to –550 range, while Silva is fetching +390 to +400. In American odds, this disparity signals that the betting public and oddsmakers assign a roughly 80–85% chance for Marshall to win versus a 20–25% chance for Silva.

Line Movement & Betting Trends

Since opening, the odds have remained remarkably stable. All five sportsbooks updated their lines on February 16, and there have been no significant swings in either direction:

• The favorite’s line has held between –520 and –550, indicating consistent support for Marshall.
• Silva’s underdog line has bounced between +390 and +400, suggesting limited sharp-money action on the Venezuelan finisher.

This steadiness implies that neither late-breaking injury news nor massive bet inflows have rocked the market. Bettors can be confident that current prices reflect the collective expert opinion.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter at today’s lines, here’s what you stand to collect:

• Betting on Francis Marshall at –520 (DraftKings’s best favorite line)

  • Profit: $192
  • Total Return: $1,192
  • Implied Win Probability: 84%

• Betting on Erik Silva at +400 (BetOnline.ag’s best underdog line)

  • Profit: $4,000
  • Total Return: $5,000
  • Implied Win Probability: 20%

Those figures illustrate the classic risk–reward tradeoff: backing the favorite yields a modest return, while a long‐shot wager on Silva could pay off handsomely if he defies the odds.

Best Sportsbook Bets

• Favorite Play: DraftKings at –520 offers the most favorable price on Marshall, shaving a few points off tougher lines at BetUS or Bovada.
• Underdog Play: BetOnline.ag at +400 presents the highest payout for Silva, slightly outpacing the +390 quotes elsewhere.

Whether you lean toward Marshall’s grappling dominance or Silva’s explosive finishing ability, knowing where to shop for the sharpest odds can maximize your potential return. With lines holding firm, now is an ideal time to lock in value before weigh-ins kick off in Mexico City.