Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh: Odds & Fight Analysis

Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh Fight Analysis

Introduction

Get ready for an electrifying flyweight clash as Brandon Moreno takes on Lone’er Kavanagh on Saturday, February 28, 2026, at the iconic Arena CDMX in Mexico City. This bout sits on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night and is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM local time (Mexico City), which corresponds to 1:00 AM UTC on March 1, 2026. With two contrasting styles and career trajectories colliding under the bright lights, this matchup promises fireworks from the opening bell.

Event Details

• Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Time: Main Card starts at 8:00 PM (CDMX) / 1:00 AM UTC (March 1)
• Venue: Arena CDMX, México D.F.
• Event: UFC Fight Night – Moreno vs Kavanagh

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

Brandon Moreno enters as the clear favorite. The Mexican Jiu-Jitsu specialist and former two-time flyweight champion holds a record of 23–8–2, with 11 submissions and 5 knockouts to his name. At –250 on the money line (BetUS), Moreno’s experience on big stages and championship pedigree make him the textbook pick for bettors looking for the safe play. Ranked #6 in the flyweight division, the 31-year-old southpaw is no stranger to five-round wars—he has gone the distance in 10 of his 33 UFC fights and maintains a 60% significant strike defense while boasting 44% takedown accuracy and 65% takedown defense.

On the opposite side, England’s rising star Lone’er Kavanagh steps in as the underdog at +206 (BetUS). The 26-year-old kickboxer, riding a professional record of 9–1, made a splash in his UFC debut on November 23, 2024, and quickly climbed to a #15 ranking. Kavanagh’s explosive striking arsenal has produced 4 knockouts and an impressive 50% significant strike accuracy. He also boasts a stout 89% takedown defense, making him difficult to take down despite his smaller frame. While he remains largely untested against top-five competition, his youth, power, and unrelenting pace create a dangerous blueprint for an upset.

Why This Fight Matters

• Style contrast: Moreno’s grappling pedigree vs. Kavanagh’s kickboxing
• Experience gap: Former champion vs. unbeaten prospect in the UFC
• Divisional implications: A win for Moreno keeps him in title contention; Kavanagh can vault himself into the top 10 with a highlight-reel victory

As the fighters make weight and the crowd files into Arena CDMX, all eyes will be on this pivotal flyweight showdown. Will Moreno’s veteran savvy and submission game prove too much, or can Kavanagh’s youthful aggression and striking power pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year? Strap in—this one is bound to deliver.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Brandon Moreno vs Lone?er Kavanagh can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Brandon Moreno: The Veteran Grappler

Country: Mexico
Age: 31
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Background:
A former two-time UFC flyweight champion, Moreno hails from Tijuana and made his UFC debut on October 2, 2016. At 67 inches tall with a 70-inch reach, he combines slick submission transitions with veteran fight IQ.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Dec. 6, 2025: Loss to Tatsuro Taira (KO/TKO, Round 2 – 2:24)
• Mar. 29, 2025: Win over Steve Erceg (Unanimous Decision, 5 rounds)
• Nov. 2, 2024: Win over Amir Albazi (Unanimous Decision, 5 rounds)
• Feb. 24, 2024: Loss to Brandon Royval (Split Decision, 5 rounds)
• Jul. 8, 2023: Loss to Alexandre Pantoja (Split Decision, 5 rounds)

Strengths:

• Elite Grappling: 11 submission victories; 44% takedown accuracy.
• Championship Cardio: Average fight time of 16:37; thrives in later rounds.
• Durability: Defends 60% of opponent’s significant strikes.
• Experience: Over 30 UFC fights against top-level competition.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Output: 44% accuracy; can be outpaced by volume strikers.
• Takedown Defense: 65% defense rate—vulnerable to high-level wrestlers.
• Chin Concerns: KO loss to Taira highlights potential striking liability.

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Lone’er Kavanagh: The Explosive Striker

Country: England
Age: 26
Fighting Style: Kickboxing

Background:
Making waves since his UFC debut on November 23, 2024, Kavanagh brings unrelenting pressure and knockout power. He stands 66 inches tall with a 67-inch reach and represents a new generation of British flyweights.

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

• Aug. 23, 2025: Loss to Charles Johnson (KO/TKO, Round 2 – 4:35)
• Mar. 22, 2025: Win over Felipe Dos Santos (Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds)
• Nov. 23, 2024: Win over Jose Ochoa (Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds)

Strengths:

• Precision Striking: 50% significant strike accuracy; 58% defense.
• Knockout Power: 4 KOs, including 2 first-round finishes.
• Takedown Defense: Stout 89% rate; rarely taken down.
• Youthful Gas: Average fight time of 10:30—constant pressure.

Weaknesses:

• Ground Game: Only 1 submission victory; limited BJJ chops.
• Five-Round Uncertainty: Has never gone past three rounds in UFC.
• Experience Gap: Just 10 pro fights, 3 in the Octagon.

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Style Clash and Key Dynamics

This matchup is a classic striker vs. grappler confrontation. Moreno’s world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu threatens to neutralize Kavanagh’s kickboxing—if he can close distance, secure takedowns, and control on the mat. Conversely, Kavanagh’s crisp striking and elite takedown defense will test Moreno’s chin and stand-up evolution.

Key Questions:

• Can Moreno impose a wrestling-heavy game plan or will Kavanagh’s kickboxing keep it upright?
• Will Kavanagh’s cardio hold up if Moreno drags him into deep waters across five rounds?
• Which fighter better exploits his opponent’s statistical vulnerabilities—Moreno’s sub-50% striking accuracy or Kavanagh’s limited ground offense?

By contrasting Moreno’s championship pedigree and grappling proficiency with Kavanagh’s youth, power, and precision, this flyweight showdown promises significant divisional ramifications—and potentially, one of the most compelling fights of the night.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Favorite: Brandon Moreno
  • Consensus line: –250 (BetUS, Caesars, Bovada)
  • Best price: –225 at DraftKings
• Underdog: Lone’er Kavanagh
  • Consensus line: +206 (BetUS)
  • Best price: +210 at Bovada

Brandon Moreno enters the cage as the clear favorite across every major sportsbook, sitting around –250. Lone’er Kavanagh is the underdog, trading between +185 and +210, depending on where you shop.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the odds history reveals some notable swings:

• BetUS
  • Moreno: drifted from –230 → –250
  • Kavanagh: climbed from +190 → +206
• DraftKings
  • Moreno: slid from –198 → –250
  • Kavanagh: jumped from +164 → +205 and settled at +185
• Caesars
  • Moreno: moved from –230 → –250
  • Kavanagh: widened from +175 → +205
• Bovada
  • Moreno: alternated between –235 and –250
  • Kavanagh: oscillated between +195 and +210

These shifts tell two stories. First, late money has poured in on Moreno, pushing his line deeper into favorite territory. Second, sharp money on Kavanagh early drove his price from +164 to the +200s on DraftKings, hinting that savvy bettors see value in the underdog’s power and takedown defense.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Moreno (Favorite): DraftKings at –225 offers the shallowest juice.
• For Kavanagh (Underdog): Bovada at +210 delivers the highest payout.

Shopping lines across multiple books can net you extra value—especially on the underdog where a few extra points in payout make a big difference.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter at current odds, here’s what you could expect:

• Bet $1,000 on Moreno at –250:
  • Profit: $400
  • Total Return: $1,400
  • Implied Chance: ~71%
• Bet $1,000 on Kavanagh at +206:
  • Profit: $2,060
  • Total Return: $3,060
  • Implied Chance: ~33%

Because Moreno’s line has moved deeper, the favorite’s implied probability has increased over the past week, whereas Kavanagh’s chance of an upset has slightly dwindled—yet remains a lucrative long shot.

Key Takeaways

• Line Drift: Moreno’s odds have shortened consistently, reflecting confidence in the veteran champion.
• Underdog Value: Kavanagh’s best numbers remain at Bovada; his beatable line could reward a well-timed wager.
• Shop for Odds: Divergence between sportsbooks—especially on the underdog—underscores the importance of comparing lines before you bet.

Whether you back the seasoned grappler or the explosive striker, understanding line movement and shopping for the sharpest odds will maximize your potential payout in this pivotal flyweight showdown.