Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic Fight Odds & AI Pick | UFC Bet

Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic Fight Analysis

Event Details

The Welterweight showdown between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic is set to take place on Saturday, February 21, 2026, at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. This bout will headline the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez, with the cage doors officially opening at 8:00 PM CT and the Neal vs. Medic tilt scheduled to begin at approximately 9:00 PM CT. Fans tuning in can catch all the action live on ESPN+ in the United States and via UFC Fight Pass internationally.

Matchup Overview

• Favorite: Geoff Neal (–180)
• Underdog: Uros Medic (+150)

Las Vegas oddsmakers have installed Geoff Neal as the clear favorite, with his –180 moneyline reflecting strong confidence in his proven striking and veteran savvy. Across sportsbooks like BetUS, DraftKings, and Caesars, bettors are laying $180 to win $100 on Neal’s victory. Conversely, Uros Medic enters as the underdog at +150, offering a tempting payout for those backing Serbia’s knockout artist—$100 wagered could yield $150 in profit.

Fighter Profiles

Geoff Neal (USA)

• Record: 16–7–0
• UFC Ranking: #12 Welterweight
• Fighting Style: Striker
• Key Stats:
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 51%
  • Takedown Defense: 88%
  • Average Fight Time: 09:52

A veteran of seventeen UFC appearances, “Handz of Steel” Neal brings a potent blend of power punching and high-level takedown defense. He earned his ranking with highlight-reel knockouts, most recently dismantling former champion Rafael Dos Anjos in just 90 seconds. Neal’s durability and cage IQ make him a trustworthy pick in the eyes of oddsmakers and bettors alike.

Uros Medic (Serbia)

• Record: 12–3–0
• UFC Ranking: Unranked
• Fighting Style: MMA All-Around
• Key Stats:
  • Knockout Wins: 10
  • First Round Finishes: 9
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 61%

Medic is a rising 32-year-old with exceptional finishing power—10 of his 12 wins have come by knockout, and nine in the opening round. After rebounding from a sole submission loss in late 2023, he has ripped off back-to-back first-round stoppages over veteran Tim Means and Muslim Salikhov. His explosive offense and 50% takedown accuracy present a serious threat to any opponent willing to walk into his power.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup is more than just a clash of styles; it’s a measurement stick for both men’s title aspirations. A decisive win for Neal could cement his status as a top-eight contender in a crowded division. For Medic, downing a ranked veteran on the big stage would vault him into the conversation and potentially earn him a spot in the divisional rankings. With elite striking on both sides and contrasting physical dimensions—Neal’s 75-inch reach against Medic’s 71 inches—the stage is set for an electrifying contest that could end in a flash or play out as a strategic chess match.

Stay tuned as we dive deeper into each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and betting angles throughout our full fight breakdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Geoff Neal

• Age: 35
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Striker
• Record: 16–7–0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Aug. 16, 2025 – Loss vs. Carlos Prates (Decision)
2. Oct. 26, 2024 – Win vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (KO/TKO R1, 1:30)
3. Feb. 17, 2024 – Loss vs. Ian Garry (Split Decision)
4. Mar. 4, 2023 – Loss vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (Submission R3, 4:17)
5. Aug. 6, 2022 – Win vs. Vicente Luque (KO/TKO R3, 2:01)

Strengths

• Elite Takedown Defense (88%): Neal rarely goes to the mat, neutralizing wrestlers and grapplers.
• Durability & Defense: His 57% significant strike defense and nearly 10-minute average fight time demonstrate his gas tank and ability to weather storming offense.
• Power & Finishing: 10 career knockouts, including fast finishes like the 1:30 KO of Dos Anjos, keep opponents honest.

Weaknesses

• Strike Accuracy (51%) lags behind many top welterweights, meaning Neal may miss more often and expend energy in the pocket.
• Inconsistency Against Top Competition: Three of his last five fights are losses, showing vulnerability in high-pressure bouts.
• Takedown Offense (45%) is modest; if Medic stuffs his shots, Neal must rely entirely on his boxing.

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Uros Medic

• Age: 32
• Country: Serbia
• Fighting Style: MMA All-Around
• Record: 12–3–0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Nov. 8, 2025 – Win vs. Muslim Salikhov (KO/TKO R1, 1:03)
2. Aug. 9, 2025 – Win vs. Gilbert Urbina (KO/TKO R1, 1:03)
3. Jan. 11, 2025 – Loss vs. Punahele Soriano (KO/TKO R1, 0:31)
4. Apr. 27, 2024 – Win vs. Tim Means (KO/TKO R1, 2:09)
5. Nov. 18, 2023 – Loss vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Submission R2, 4:12)

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 10 of 12 wins by KO/TKO, nine in Round 1—Medic can end the fight in seconds.
• High Strike Accuracy (61%): He lands six out of every ten significant strikes.
• Balanced Offense: A 50% takedown success rate gives him multiple ways to finish.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (56%): Subpar wrestling defense could be exploited by Neal, especially given Neal’s 88% TD defense superiority.
• Durability in Deep Water: Most wins come early; his 4:15 average fight time suggests he’s unproven in later rounds.
• Submission Defense: Surrendered a second-round tap in his last submission loss, indicating a potential grappling gap against elite BJJ practitioners.

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Tactical Outlook

• Neal’s Path to Victory: Use takedown defense to keep the fight standing, drag Medic into deep waters, and outpoint him with volume and cardio.
• Medic’s Game Plan: Explode early with power strikes, mix in clinch takedowns to test Neal’s underutilized ground game, and finish before fatigue sets in.

This clash of styles—Neal’s veteran grappling and defense versus Medic’s explosive knockout artistry—creates a classic puzzle for bettors and fans alike. The outcome will hinge on whether Medic can land a fight-ending shot in Round 1 or Neal can impose his grappling will in the championship rounds.

Odds Overview & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Favorite: Geoff Neal (–180)
• Underdog: Uros Medic (+155)

Across major sportsbooks like DraftKings, BetUS, Caesars, and Bovada, Geoff Neal is listed at –180, meaning you’d wager $180 to win $100. FanDuel shows a slightly longer line at –196, but most sharp books have him at –180. Meanwhile, Uros Medic trades between +150 and +155, with BetOnline.ag and Bovada offering the juiciest underdog price at +155.

Line Movement & Sharp Action

• Geoff Neal: Opened as high as –215 on February 7 at BetOnline.ag but has since firmed to –180 by February 11. This 35-point shift indicates early confidence in his return to form, especially after his highlight-reel KO of Dos Anjos.
• Uros Medic: Initially posted at +185 on February 7 (BetOnline.ag) before settling around +155. A 30-point drop on the underdog line suggests significant backing of Serbia’s power puncher, as well as market correction.
• Intraday Swings: Bovada’s market ping-pong between +158 and +155 all throughout February 10–11 points to heavy action on Medic, likely from value seekers betting his rapid KO upside.

Overall, both lines have “sharpened” toward consensus, but Medic’s shorter line highlights bettors chasing the underdog’s first-round explosion, while Neal’s line has eased as oddsmakers adjust for balanced action.

Best Books for Your Bet

• Backing the Favorite (Neal):
  –180 is universal at DraftKings, BetUS, Caesars, and Bovada. Choose your preferred interface—no line advantage here.
• Backing the Underdog (Medic):
  BetOnline.ag and Bovada lead the pack at +155, offering the highest upside on Medic’s upset potential.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bets & Implied Probabilities

If you laid $1,000 on each fighter:

• Geoff Neal (–180): Returns $1,555.56 (profit $555.56, total payout). Implied win probability: ~64%.
• Uros Medic (+155): Returns $2,550 (profit $1,550, total payout). Implied win probability: ~39%.

Despite the juice baked into both lines, Neal’s greater implied likelihood and Medic’s lucrative underdog payout make for two distinct bankroll strategies: steady favorite play versus high-reward contrarian wagering.

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By tracking these odds and line moves, bettors can gauge public perception, sharp money flow, and where the true value lies. Whether you side with Neal’s proven UFC pedigree or Medic’s earth-shattering power, understanding where to click “bet” for the best line is a critical edge in this Welterweight tilt.