Winner: Jacobe Smith
Confidence Score: 83Jacobe Smith is the pick due to his superior stats and stylistic advantages. He is undefeated at 11-0, with 8 knockouts and 7 first-round finishes, showing strong finishing ability. His striking metrics are exceptional for a welterweight: 67% significant strike accuracy and 47% defense. His grappling is elite, with a 90% takedown accuracy and 100% takedown defense, making him very hard to take down and dangerous in scrambles. He also has physical advantages: 3 inches taller, 4 inches more reach, and a significant leg reach edge. Josiah Harrell is also undefeated and highly dangerous with a grappling base, but his UFC stats are incomplete and he has not faced the same level of competition. Historically, fighters with Smith's physical and statistical profile, especially with high takedown defense and offensive output, win at a high rate against grapplers who lack a significant reach or striking threat. Unless Harrell can force the fight to the ground early, Smith’s striking, size, and wrestling defense should control the bout.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.
