Winner: Guilherme Pat
Confidence Score: 68Guilherme Pat holds substantial physical advantages over Thomas Petersen, including a 5-inch height, 7-inch arm reach, and 8-inch leg reach edge, which are historically significant in the heavyweight division. Pat is undefeated at 5-0, with 4 wins by knockout and a striking accuracy of 64%, paired with a strong 62% significant strike defense. While he has not shown wrestling skills (0% takedown accuracy/defense), Petersen’s wrestling is less likely to be a dominant factor given Pat’s size and striking output. Petersen has a solid wrestling base and strong takedown defense (88%), but has been stopped by KO/TKO in two of his last three losses, showing vulnerability to powerful strikers. Fighters with Pat’s profile—undefeated, large reach, high striking accuracy, and knockout power—have historically won at a higher rate against wrestle-boxers like Petersen, especially when they can keep the fight standing. Pat’s ability to maintain distance and land at a high rate gives him the edge, though the lack of grappling data and Petersen’s experience make this less than a lock.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moicano vs Duncan can be found on the Moicano vs Duncan event page.
