Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll: Odds & Picks

# Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll Fight Breakdown

## Event Details
- **Date:** April 4, 2026  
- **Time:** 9:00 PM ET (Preliminary Card)  
- **Venue:** Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV  
- **Event:** UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan (Preliminary Card, Flyweight Division)  

## Introduction

The **Flyweight** division kicks off the preliminary portion of UFC Fight Night: **Moicano vs Duncan** with a compelling matchup as Brazilian grappling specialist **Alessandro Costa** (14-5-0) squares off against Australian submission artist **Stewart Nicoll** (8-2-0). This bout is slated to begin at 9:00 PM ET on April 4, 2026, inside the state-of-the-art Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. With the odds-makers installing **Costa** as the heavy favorite at **–400** and Nicoll entering at **+330**, this clash not only promises fireworks on the mat but also meaningful movement in the flyweight ladder.

Costa, making his third outing of 2026 and sporting an aggressive Jiu-Jitsu base, has already compiled six submission victories and eight first-round finishes in his 14 UFC wins. Since debuting on December 17, 2022, in Houston, “**Moqtada**” has shown impressive takedown defense (83 %) and a well-rounded striking game landing 45 % of his significant strikes. However, recent setbacks—including a TKO loss to Alden Coria last September—have fueled his determination to reconfirm himself as a top-flight flyweight contender.

On the opposite side of the Octagon, Stewart Nicoll brings a contrasting style honed in the grappling trenches. “**The Solomon Island Grappler**” made his UFC debut on August 17, 2024, and despite a pair of decision and submission defeats in his first two appearances, he has rattled off eight total career victories, including three submissions and four knockouts. Nicoll’s willingness to engage early is reflected in five first-round finishes and an average fight time of just under nine minutes, though his takedown defense sits at a modest 25 %. At +330, Nicoll represents one of the more attractive underdog plays on the prelims sheet.

With the spotlight on their contrasting ground games—Costa’s industry-leading takedown defense versus Nicoll’s relentless wrestling assault—this encounter promises pivotal positional scrambles and swarming top-control sequences.  
- Will Costa nullify Nicoll’s entries and impose his precision striking?  
- Or can Nicoll chain together takedowns long enough to force a submission or grind out a decision?

Beyond styles, both competitors carry momentum: Costa seeks redemption after a disappointing loss, and Nicoll aims to snap a two-fight skid. For bettors, Costa’s current –400 price tag implies an 80 % implied win probability, while Nicoll’s +330 line suggests a lucrative 23 % chance of an upset—making this a classic favorite-versus-underdog scenario with real betting value on the tables.

As the cage door closes and the prelims get underway, all eyes will turn to these two hungry flyweights battling for early-night glory. Whether you’re backing the grappling pedigree of **Alessandro Costa** or riding the underdog wave with **Stewart Nicoll**, anticipation is at an all-time high for this flyweight showdown at Meta APEX.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moicano vs Duncan can be found on the Moicano vs Duncan event page.

# Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll Matchup & Fighter Profiles

## Fighter Background

### Alessandro Costa
- **Age:** 29  
- **Country:** Brazil  
- **Fighting Style:** Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with a developing striking arsenal  
- **Physicals:** 64″ height, 67″ reach, 125.5 lb walk-around weight  
- **UFC Debut:** December 17, 2022  

Alessandro “Moqtada” Costa enters this fight as the seasoned veteran of the two, armed with a 14-5-0 professional record and balanced finishing ability (5 KOs, 6 submissions). He represents the **Flyweight Division** as a technically sound grappler who pairs slick takedown defense (83 %) with crisp, accurate striking (45 % significant strike accuracy).

### Stewart Nicoll
- **Age:** 30  
- **Country:** Australia (born Solomon Islands)  
- **Fighting Style:** Grappler with explosive submission and knockout power  
- **Physicals:** 65″ height, 65.5″ reach, 126 lb walk-around weight  
- **UFC Debut:** August 17, 2024  

Stewart Nicoll, “The Solomon Island Grappler,” carries an 8-2-0 record into his preliminary-card tilt. Although he’s still seeking his first UFC win, Nicoll boasts four knockout victories and three submissions among his eight career triumphs. His aggressive style yields five first-round finishes and keeps average fight time under nine minutes.

## Recent Form

### Costa’s Last Five Bouts
1. **Loss** vs. Alden Coria – KO/TKO (Round 3, 0:47) on Sept. 13, 2025  
2. **Win** vs. Kevin Borjas – KO/TKO (Round 2, 1:35) on May 4, 2024  
3. **Loss** vs. Steve Erceg – Decision (Unanimous) (Round 3, 5:00) on Nov. 11, 2023  
4. **Win** vs. Jimmy Flick – KO/TKO (Round 2, 1:03) on June 17, 2023  
5. **Loss** vs. Amir Albazi – KO/TKO (Round 3, 2:13) on Dec. 17, 2022  

Costa’s form has oscillated: three knockout defeats highlight occasional defensive lapses, while his two recent KO wins demonstrate his finishing power when timing and range align.

### Nicoll’s Last Two UFC Bouts
1. **Loss** vs. Lucas Rocha – Decision (Unanimous) (Round 3, 5:00) on Oct. 11, 2025  
2. **Loss** vs. Jesus Aguilar – Submission (Round 1, 2:39) on Aug. 17, 2024  

Although 0-2 in the UFC, Nicoll’s career momentum came from diverse finishes outside the Octagon. He’ll be hungry to reverse course and halt a two-fight skid.

## Strengths & Weaknesses

### Alessandro Costa
- **Strengths:**  
  - **Takedown Defense (83 %)** frustrates wrestlers and forces stand-up exchanges  
  - **Striking Accuracy (45 %)** allows him to land significant strikes consistently  
  - **Submission Savvy:** six career subs keep opponents wary of ground scrambles  
- **Weaknesses:**  
  - **Takedown Offense (17 %)** suggests he seldom initiates ground control  
  - **KO Vulnerability:** five of his five career losses came by stoppage  
  - **Cardio in Later Rounds:** average fight time of 10:56 may indicate less pace in championship frames  

### Stewart Nicoll
- **Strengths:**  
  - **Finishing Rate:** 5 first-round finishes out of 8 wins indicate explosive starts  
  - **Versatile Grappling:** three submission wins show comfort hunting chokes and armbars  
  - **Power:** 50 % of his wins via knockout keep opponents mindful of striking exchanges  
- **Weaknesses:**  
  - **Takedown Defense (25 %)** means he’s frequently put on his back  
  - **Striking Defense (49 %)** below-average absorption control leaves him open to counters  
  - **Takedown Accuracy (14 %)** limits his ability to dictate ground position  

## Tactical Outlook

Costa will look to keep Nicoll at bay with precise striking and force scrambles on the fence he can win. By denying takedowns and exploiting his striking edge, Costa can rack up significant strikes and pick his moments to threaten subs. Nicoll, by contrast, must close distance early, chain his level changes, and capitalize on any clinch control to unleash his submission prowess. The battle between Costa’s elite takedown defense and Nicoll’s wrestling will be the fulcrum on which this flyweight scrap turns.

Whether you back Costa’s technical acumen or Nicoll’s thunderous aggression, stylistic contrasts promise high drama in this prelim flyweight showdown.  

# Odds Breakdown & Betting History

## Current Betting Lines

- **Alessandro Costa:** –400 (BetOnline.ag)  
- **Stewart Nicoll:** +330 (BetOnline.ag)  

As of the latest update, Brazil’s Alessandro Costa is a heavy favorite at **–400**, implying roughly an 80 % chance to win. Australia’s Stewart Nicoll sits well down the card as the underdog at **+330**, equating to about a 23 % implied probability. This stark contrast in pricing underscores the betting market’s confidence in Costa’s grappling defense and overall UFC experience.

### Favorite vs. Underdog

- **Favorite:** Alessandro Costa (–400)  
- **Underdog:** Stewart Nicoll (+330)  

Costa’s mark of –400 means a $400 wager would net you $100 in profit. Conversely, Nicoll’s +330 line delivers $330 on every $100 staked, giving underdog backers a lucrative long shot.

## Line Movement & Historical Trends

| Date (UTC)            | Costa Odds | Nicoll Odds |
|-----------------------|------------|-------------|
| March 23, 2026, 23:30 | –470       | +370        |
| March 25, 2026, 08:49 | –400       | +330        |

- **Costa:** Opened at –470 on March 23, then moved to –400 by March 25. This 70-point shift suggests some betting volume or sharp action on Nicoll has softened Costa’s favorite status.
- **Nicoll:** Dropped from +370 to +330 over the same period, indicating growing support for the Australian and increased belief in his upset potential.

No other sportsbooks currently post better lines for this matchup—**BetOnline.ag** offers the most competitive odds and the deepest liquidity for both sides.

## Payout Scenarios

If you placed a **$1,000** wager on either fighter today, here’s what you’d collect:

- **Costa (–400):**  
  - Profit: $250  
  - Total Return: $1,250  

- **Nicoll (+330):**  
  - Profit: $3,300  
  - Total Return: $4,300  

## Implied Probabilities

- **Alessandro Costa:** ~80 %  
- **Stewart Nicoll:** ~23 %  

With Costa priced as a sizable favorite, bettors backing Nicoll are chasing significant value. The line movement—Costa easing off from –470 to –400 while Nicoll’s odds shorten—reflects heavy early action on the underdog. If you believe Nicoll’s wrestling can overcome Costa’s takedown defense, +330 is one of the more attractive underdog plays on the card.

### Key Takeaways

- **Value Play:** Stewart Nicoll at +330 offers a high-reward proposition if he can land early takedowns or catch Costa in a scramble.  
- **Safest Bet:** Alessandro Costa at –400 is heavily backed and expected to use superior takedown defense and submission acumen to control the fight.  
- **Best Sportsbook:** BetOnline.ag currently provides the sharpest lines and solid odds for both fighters.

Whether you lean toward Costa’s technical precision or Nicoll’s raw aggression, your choice hinges on how you interpret that 70-point swing. The underdog’s shortening line suggests money is coming in on Nicoll—and smart money tends to move markets. Place your wager accordingly, and may the odds be ever in your favor.