Jandiroba vs Ricci: UFC Odds, Stats & AI Pick

Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci fight analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan
Date: Saturday, April 4, 2026
Time: Main card begins at 7:00 PM PT (approximate start time for this bout)
Venue: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lb)

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Fight Overview

As the UFC returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on April 4, 2026, the women’s strawweight division delivers another high-stakes showdown when Virna Jandiroba (#3 ranked) meets Tabatha Ricci (#7 ranked) on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan. Both fighters hail from Brazil and bring contrasting styles and career arcs into the Octagon. At 37 years young, Jandiroba is the seasoned submission specialist whose record stands at 22-4-0, boasting 14 career submission victories and eight first-round finishes. Ricci, by contrast, is the 30-year-old judo practitioner riding a three-fight win streak, sitting at 12-3-0 with two knockouts and three submissions to her name.

The Favorite and the Underdog

According to the latest BetOnline.ag odds (as of March 24, 2026), Tabatha Ricci is the favorite at –125, reflecting her recent KO win over Amanda Ribas and her momentum inside the division. Virna Jandiroba, the veteran grappler, is the underdog at +105, despite her extensive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and top-three ranking. Oddsmakers appear to be weighing Ricci’s explosive finishing ability and six-fight UFC tenure slightly higher against Jandiroba’s elite guard work and Pressure Fighting™ style.

Why This Bout Matters

• Top-10 Implications: A win propels Ricci closer to a title eliminator or strawweight title shot, whereas Jandiroba can reinforce her status as a championship contender by snapping Ricci’s rising trajectory.
• Styles Clash: Jandiroba’s 38% takedown accuracy and 74% takedown defense underscore her confidence in grappling exchanges, while Ricci’s 37% takedown offense and 79% defense signal she’s equally comfortable keeping the fight upright or scrambling back to her feet.
• Experience vs. Momentum: With over 25 professional MMA bouts, Jandiroba brings experience and pressure; Ricci counters with youth, speed and a penchant for late-fight finishes — she’s averaged nearly 13 minutes of Octagon time, compared to Jandiroba’s 13:09 average.

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In a matchup that blends veteran savvy with emerging talent, Jandiroba vs Ricci promises to deliver high-level grappling exchanges, striking spurts, and pivotal momentum swings. Whether you side with the seasoned submission ace or the surging judo specialist, Saturday’s clash in Las Vegas could very well shape the title picture in the loaded women’s strawweight division.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moicano vs Duncan can be found on the Moicano vs Duncan event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Virna Jandiroba – “Karate Hottie”

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: Brazil (State of Bahia)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (14 submission wins)
• UFC Debut: April 27, 2019
• Record: 22-4-0, including one KO and 14 submissions

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

1. Oct. 25, 2025 vs Mackenzie Dern – Loss (Decision Unanimous)
2. Apr. 12, 2025 vs Xiaonan Yan – Win (Decision Unanimous)
3. Jul. 20, 2024 vs Amanda Lemos – Win (Submission, R2 4:48)
4. Mar. 30, 2024 vs Loopy Godinez – Win (Decision Unanimous)
5. May 6, 2023 vs Marina Rodriguez – Win (Decision Unanimous)

Strengths

• Elite Grappling: 38% takedown accuracy with 74% defense makes her one of the most dangerous ground fighters in women’s strawweight.
• Submission Threat: 14 of her 22 wins come via choke or arm-lock; eight first-round finishes keep opponents wary early.
• Pace & Pressure: Averages 13:09 fight time in three-round bouts, indicating willingness to push late and wear foes down.
• Experience Edge: 26 professional fights and five UFC appearances, including one five-round headliner, give her veteran savvy in championship-caliber matchups.

Weaknesses

• Aging Gas Tank?: At 37, speed and recovery between grappling scrambles could wane against younger athletes.
• Striking Deficit: 41% significant strike accuracy and just one KO in 26 bouts suggest limited heavy-hands and a reliance on grinding top control.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: 56% significant strike defense leaves her open to volume strikers who can exploit openings in clinch transitions.

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Tabatha Ricci – “The Black Diamond”

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil (State of São Paulo)
• Fighting Style: Judo base with evolving striking and ground transitions
• UFC Debut: June 5, 2021
• Record: 12-3-0, including two KOs and three submissions

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

1. Jul. 26, 2025 vs Amanda Ribas – Win (KO/TKO, R2 2:59)
2. Nov. 23, 2024 vs Xiaonan Yan – Loss (Decision Unanimous)
3. Aug. 24, 2024 vs Angela Hill – Win (Decision Unanimous)
4. May 11, 2024 vs Tecia Pennington – Win (Decision Split)
5. Nov. 11, 2023 vs Loopy Godinez – Loss (Decision Split)

Strengths

• Dynamic Judo Clinch: 79% takedown defense paired with 37% offensive success means she can dictate where the fight goes—either slam opponents or thwart takedown attempts.
• Explosive Finisher: Two knockouts in three UFC wins show power and timing; her head-kick KO of Ribas underscores her range and precision.
• Defensive Footwork: 58% significant strike defense and a sub-40% average accuracy conceded per opponent allow her to evade and counter effectively.
• Youthful Momentum: At 30, her athleticism and scramble ability remain sharp; her average fight time is 12:49, indicating readiness to push past the halfway mark.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Exchanges: While her takedown defense is strong, 37% offensive takedown accuracy means she may struggle to neutralize Jandiroba’s BJJ once the veteran clinch-drives begin.
• Submissions Conceded: With only three submission wins and three career submission losses, vulnerability in long grappling sequences against elite BJJ specialists is exposed.
• Striking Consistency: 37% significant strike accuracy suggests spurts of volume but a need for cleaner output to avoid judge’s scorecards in tight stand-up battles.

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This clash pits Jandiroba’s seasoned ground mastery and relentless pressure against Ricci’s explosive judo entries and evolving striking arsenal. Those seeking chaos and submission artistry will lean toward the veteran, while fans of dynamic throws and knockout potential may favor the rising underdog. In the balance lies the future trajectory of the women’s strawweight division.

Odds & Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

• Tabatha Ricci: –125 (favorite)
• Virna Jandiroba: +105 (underdog)

As of the latest update on March 24, 2026, Tabatha Ricci holds the edge on the money line at –125, making her the sportsbook favorite. Virna Jandiroba sits just on the other side of a pick-’em line at +105, designating her the underdog. The slim 5-point edge underscores just how evenly matched this women’s strawweight showdown is shaping up.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On
All current odds are sourced from BetOnline.ag, which consistently offers competitive lines, deep markets, and one of the quickest odds-response times in MMA. For bettors seeking early movement and reliable updates, BetOnline.ag remains the go-to platform for this UFC Fight Night card.

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Line Movement & Odds History

Both fighters have seen significant line swings over the past 24 hours. Here’s a snapshot of their odds evolution at BetOnline.ag:

Tabatha Ricci (–125):

• 06:49 PT – +110
• 07:09 PT – +100
• 07:20 PT – –110
• 08:10 PT – –125

Virna Jandiroba (+105):

• 06:49 PT – –130
• 07:09 PT – –120
• 07:20 PT – –110
• 08:10 PT – +105

Key takeaways:

• Momentum Shift: Ricci opened as a mild underdog (+110) before sharp action drove her into favorite territory (–125).
• Underdog Bounce: Jandiroba began as a moderate favorite (–130) but late bets flipped the line, pushing her to +105 underdog.
• Market Volatility: A swing of over 230 cents in each direction suggests heavy money came in for both fighters at different times, indicating split confidence among sharp bettors and casual backers alike.

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Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you wager $1,000 tonight:

• On Tabatha Ricci at –125: Your total payout would be $1,800 (that’s $800 net profit plus your $1,000 stake back).
• On Virna Jandiroba at +105: Your total payout would be $2,050 (that’s $1,050 net profit plus your $1,000 stake back).

Based on the current money lines, Ricci carries just over a 55% implied probability of victory, while Jandiroba sits right under a 50% chance to pull off the upset. These percentages reflect how oddsmakers and betters view the stylistic clash—Ricci’s explosive judo and finishing flair versus Jandiroba’s world-class submission game and veteran grit.

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What It Means for Bettors

• Tight Spread: A swing of only 230 total cents across the board means each fighter has dedicated supporters.
• Late Movement Alert: Keep an eye on any further shifts as fight night approaches—this line could flip again if sharp money targets either athlete.
• Value & Risk: Ricci offers a safer bet with a solid favorite’s edge, but Jandiroba at +105 delivers slightly better value if you back the veteran grappler to slow Ricci’s momentum.

Whether you side with the rising judo specialist or the seasoned Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace, the odds imply this one will go right down to the wire. Bet wisely, and may your pick cash in big on fight night.