Winner: Alexia Thainara
Confidence Score: 78Alexia Thainara has a strong grappling advantage, with 7 submission wins and a 100% takedown defense, making her very difficult to control or take down. Her striking defense (65%) is also notably higher than Bruna Brasil's (52%), and she has a longer arm reach (67" vs 65.5"). Thainara's finishing ability, especially in the first round (4 first-round finishes), and her ranking (#13) indicate a higher level of recent competition and success. While Bruna Brasil is more accurate with her striking and takedowns, her takedown defense (54%) is a vulnerability against Thainara's grappling. Historically, fighters with Thainara's grappling credentials, younger age (29 vs 32), and reach edge have won a majority of similar women's strawweight matchups. Thainara's recent form and style matchup give her a clear edge.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Adesanya vs Pyfer can be found on the Adesanya vs Pyfer event page.
