Winner: Sergei Pavlovich
Confidence Score: 80Sergei Pavlovich holds a significant advantage in both experience and proven power at the elite level of the heavyweight division. He has 15 first-round finishes and a 75% takedown defense, which is crucial against aggressive strikers. While Tallison Teixeira is a young, athletic prospect with high striking accuracy (65%) and a massive reach, his takedown defense is 0% and his striking defense is only 43%, which is dangerous against someone with Pavlovich's knockout power and pressure. Historically, fighters with Pavlovich's profile (age 33, Russian MMA style, long reach, high knockout rate, top-5 ranking) have an excellent win rate against less-experienced, defensively vulnerable heavyweights, especially those with poor grappling defense. Recent form also favors Pavlovich, who has consistently finished top competition, while Teixeira's lone loss was a KO in the first round. The data and matchup trends strongly favor Pavlovich by KO/TKO.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Song vs Figueiredo can be found on the Song vs Figueiredo event page.
