Winner: Jacob Malkoun
Confidence Score: 68Jacob Malkoun is likely to win due to several key factors in the matchup. First, he is significantly younger (30 vs 38), and historical UFC data shows middleweights under 32 have a much higher win rate against opponents 37 and older, especially when the older fighter is on a losing streak. Malkoun's striking is notably more efficient, with a 58% significant strike accuracy compared to Meerschaert's 45%, and he absorbs less damage (55% defense vs 53%). Malkoun's takedown accuracy is also higher (41% vs 30%), and while his takedown defense is weaker, Meerschaert's wrestling is not elite and he has struggled against physically strong wrestlers and grinders. Meerschaert has a dangerous submission game, but Malkoun has never been submitted and shows good positional awareness. Additionally, Meerschaert's recent form is poor, with four losses in his last five, three by finish, suggesting declining durability. Malkoun, despite having fewer UFC fights, has shown steady improvement and a style that historically troubles aging grapplers. The data and matchup trends favor the younger, more active, and higher-output Malkoun.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Prates can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Prates event page.
