UFC 328: King Green vs Jeremy Stephens Betting Odds

King Green vs Jeremy Stephens fight analysis

Event: UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland (Main Card)
Date & Time: Sunday, May 10, 2026 • 1:00 AM UTC (9:00 PM ET, May 9 local)
Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lb)
Favorite: King Green (–300)
Underdog: Jeremy Stephens (+240)

Introduction

On Sunday, May 10, 2026 (9:00 PM ET on May 9), fight fans will turn their attention to Newark’s Prudential Center for a pivotal Lightweight showdown on the Main Card of UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland. Veteran striker Jeremy Stephens (28-20-0) squares off against seasoned finisher King Green (34-17-1) in a clash pitting raw power and experience against a versatile, well-rounded toolkit. With both men angling to rebound after recent setbacks, this bout promises fireworks and potential title contention implications in one of the UFC’s most talent-rich divisions.

As of the latest odds, King Green enters as a substantial –300 favorite across major sportsbooks (DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel), reflecting his superior finish rate (11 first-round stoppages) and statistical edges—53% striking accuracy, 73% takedown defense, and an average fight time under 11 minutes. In contrast, longtime fan-favorite Jeremy Stephens sits at +240 underdog status, a nod to his career-high 19 knockouts but also his ongoing five-fight skid that includes unanimous decision losses to Mason Jones (2025) and a highlight-reel stoppage by Calvin Kattar (2020).

This encounter not only offers a compelling stylistic puzzle—Stephens’ relentless pressure and knockout power versus Green’s technical precision and submission acumen—but also serves as a crossroads for both careers. At 38 years old, Stephens is chasing what could be the most improbable late-career resurgence in UFC Lightweight history, while 39-year-old Green seeks to assert his status as a top-15 contender after a narrow split-decision victory over Lance Gibson Jr. in December 2025 and a close loss to rising prospect Daniel Zellhuber in February 2026.

In this fight analysis, we will break down how each athlete’s historical trends, recent form, and statistical advantages play into the expected narrative. We'll examine Stephens’ knockout potency and vulnerabilities—highlighted by his 41% striking accuracy and only 38% takedown success rate—alongside Green’s balanced approach, which marries a 43% takedown conversion rate with a stiff defensive structure. Furthermore, we’ll explore how fight-ending moments tend to unfold in the opening frame (Green has one of the highest first-round finish rates in the division) versus Stephens’ tendency to drag opponents into deeper waters.

With UFC debut dates spanning nearly two decades—Stephens stepped into the Octagon in May 2007, Green in May 2012—this matchup represents an intersection of longevity, evolution, and the unrelenting chase for the next opportunity. As both fighters prepare to arrive under the bright lights of Newark, the betting odds underscore a clear favorite, but in mixed martial arts, nothing is certain until the final horn sounds. Let’s dive deeper into each competitor’s path to UFC 328 and identify the keys to victory in this high-stakes lightweight affair.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for King Green vs Jeremy Stephens can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Chimaev vs Strickland can be found on the Chimaev vs Strickland event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

King Green

Background

• Age: 39
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA (well-rounded, blending striking and grappling)
• UFC Debut: May 20, 2012

King Green brings almost 15 years of UFC experience into this lightweight showdown. Hailing from San Bernardino, Green has carved out a reputation as a finish-oriented competitor, with an impressive 11 first-round stoppages among his 34 career wins.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Feb. 28, 2026 vs Daniel Zellhuber – Loss (Decision)
2. Dec. 13, 2025 vs Lance Gibson Jr. – Win (Split Decision)
3. Mar. 8, 2025 vs Mauricio Ruffy – Loss (KO/TKO R1)
4. Jul. 27, 2024 vs Paddy Pimblett – Loss (Submission R1)
5. Apr. 13, 2024 vs Jim Miller – Win (Unanimous Decision)

Green’s alternating win-loss pattern underscores both his willingness to engage elite competition and occasional lapses in consistency. His split-decision victory over Gibson Jr. demonstrated resilience, while the quick stoppages by Ruffy and Pimblett reveal moments of vulnerability against powerful finishers.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (53%): Green lands more than half of his significant strikes, giving him a clear edge in the stand-up exchanges.
• Takedown Defense (73%): He stifles opponents’ wrestling, forcing most fights to remain upright.
• Submission Arsenal (9 career submissions): His ground game is legitimate; he can capitalize if the fight hits the mat.
• First-Round Finishes (11): Green often starts aggressively, looking to end fights early.

Weaknesses:

• Power Output: Only 12 KOs in 34 wins, suggesting he relies more on volume and transitions than one-punch knockouts.
• Late-Fight Stamina: With an average fight time of 10:57, Green can fade in deeper waters, as seen against Zellhuber.
• Striking Defense (62%): While respectable, he concedes enough significant strikes that a heavy hitter could exploit.

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Jeremy Stephens

Background

• Age: 38
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Freestyle striker (heavy hands, pressure fighter)
• UFC Debut: May 27, 2007

A veteran of nearly two decades, Jeremy Stephens is best known for his knockout power and relentless pace. The Des Moines-native carries 19 KO victories and has shared the Octagon with champions and top contenders alike.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. May 3, 2025 vs Mason Jones – Loss (Unanimous Decision)
2. Jul. 17, 2021 vs Mateusz Gamrot – Loss (Submission R1)
3. May 9, 2020 vs Calvin Kattar – Loss (KO/TKO R2)
4. Oct. 18, 2019 vs Yair Rodriguez – Loss (Decision)
5. Sep. 21, 2019 vs Yair Rodriguez – No Contest (Illegal Knee)

Stephens enters on a five-bout winless streak, unable to recapture the form that once made him a feared light-heavy within the lightweight ranks. His unanimous decision loss to Mason Jones extended a slide that includes submission and knockout defeats.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Knockout Power (19 KOs): Stephens’ hallmark is one-punch fight-enders; opponents must respect his power at all times.
• Experience & Durability: Over 48 career fights, he has shown an ability to absorb damage and stay dangerous into later rounds.
• Pressure & Pace: Known for aggressive forward movement, he forces opponents to react rather than dictate.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy (41%): Below-average precision leads to wasted energy and openings for counterstrikes.
• Takedown Defense (62%) & Accuracy (38%): He struggles both to keep the fight standing and to capitalize on takedown attempts.
• Cardio Concerns: At 38, his gas tank has come into question, especially when pressured with volume striking.
• Submission Defense: A 62% takedown defense means Green’s grappling could pose problems if Stephens drops his level.

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In this clash of veteran warriors, Green’s technical precision and grappling underpinnings meet Stephens’ brute power and relentless pressure. The statistical edge favors Green’s accuracy and defensive acumen, while Stephens still holds the potential for a fight-ending punch. The keys to victory will be Green’s ability to stay composed under pressure and Stephens’ capacity to land his power shots early.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• King Green (Favorite): Ranging from –300 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag) to –335 (BetRivers), with most books offering around –300 to –330.
• Jeremy Stephens (Underdog): Sitting between +230 (BetRivers) and +250 (BetOnline.ag), with +240 common on Caesars and FanDuel.
• Line Difference: Green’s favorite status (–300) versus Stephens’ underdog tag (+240) reflects a gap of roughly 540 points on the American line.
• Best Sportsbook to Bet:
  • As a favorite backer, –300 at Caesars or BetOnline.ag offers the least juice on Green.
  • As an underdog bettor, +250 at BetOnline.ag maximizes potential payout on Stephens.

Odds History & Line Movement

Across the major books, the lines for both fighters have shown only modest movement in the 24 hours leading up to the latest update (April 27).

• King Green:
  • Caesars opened at –300 and remains there.
  • BetRivers dipped from roughly –320 into –335, indicating a slight shift of support toward Green late in the morning.
  • FanDuel mirrors BetRivers with a move from –320 to –330.
• Jeremy Stephens:
  • Caesars has held steady at +240.
  • BetRivers shortened from +240 to +230 as a handful of underdog backers tried to grab better value early.
  • FanDuel stayed at +240, while BetOnline.ag surged to +250, likely a promotional move to attract action on the underdog.

No single sportsbook shows a dramatic swing of more than 10 points. This stability suggests sharp money has been evenly split, with soft money (recreational bettors) seeking value on both sides without forcing a runaway line move.

Payout & Implied Probability

If you place a $1,000 wager on either fighter:

• King Green at –300: Your total return would be approximately $1,333 (including your $1,000 stake), for a net profit of about $333.
• Jeremy Stephens at +250: Your total return jumps to $3,500 (including stake), netting $2,500 in profit if the underdog pulls off the upset.

Based on these odds, Green is viewed as having roughly a three-in-four chance to win, while Stephens is pegged closer to a 30% probability. Remember, implied chances from the sportsbooks do not guarantee outcomes—they simply gauge how the betting public and sharp bettors are laying their money.