Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, March 28, 2026, fight fans will be treated to an explosive bantamweight showdown as Ricky Simon squares off against Adrian Yanez on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer. The action takes place at the state-of-the-art Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, with the first preliminary bouts slated to begin at 9:00 PM GMT / 2:00 PM PT. As part of an electric fight night headlined by Israel Adesanya and Tyson Pyfer, this Simon–Yanez clash promises fireworks, high-octane striking exchanges, and critical implications for the UFC’s bantamweight division.

Ricky Simon enters this contest as the favorite, with most major sportsbooks listing him at around –150 in American odds. The 33-year-old Pendleton native is a seasoned veteran of the UFC roster, boasting a 22-7-0 professional record and a well-rounded skill set built on elite wrestling, relentless pace, and improving striking. Simon’s four submission victories and seven knockouts reflect his ability to adapt—whether grinding on the mat or dictating distance with sharp, technical stand-up. His average fight time of 12 minutes, 41 seconds underscores his willingness to go five full rounds when the opportunity demands, and his 42% takedown accuracy has repeatedly allowed him to dictate where the fight takes place.

On the other side of the Octagon, Adrian Yanez is pegged as the underdog, trading at approximately +125. The 31-year-old boxer from Galveston carries a 17-6-0 record into Seattle and has established himself as one of the most dynamic knockout artists at 135 pounds. With 11 career KO/TKO stoppages—including seven in the opening frame—Yanez thrives in explosive striking exchanges. His crisp jab, powerful hooks, and willingness to stand and trade make him a constant threat to end the fight at any moment. Despite 0% takedown accuracy to date, his 55% significant strike defense and 82% takedown defense suggest that he is comfortable both on the feet and defending wrestling incursions.

This bout represents a pivotal crossroads for both athletes. A victory for Simon would rebuild momentum after split-decision disappointment in his most recent outing, while Yanez is eager to rebound from a narrow split-decision loss in December 2024 and reassert himself as a top bantamweight contender. With the crowd in Seattle firmly behind the action and both men wielding contrasting styles—Simon’s wrestling pedigree versus Yanez’s knockout prowess—this match is poised to deliver intrigue from the opening bell.

As the betting lines indicate, Simon’s overall wrestling acumen and cardio advantage give him the edge on paper, but Yanez’s power and precision mean that this one is far from a foregone conclusion. Whether you lean toward the chalk or relish backing an underdog, Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez is a must-watch scrap that could very well steal the spotlight on UFC Fight Night’s preliminary slate.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Adesanya vs Pyfer can be found on the Adesanya vs Pyfer event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Ricky Simon: The Wrestling Workhorse

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: United States (Pendleton, OR)
• Fighting Style: Wrestling-based all-rounder

Ricky Simon debuted in the UFC in August 2017 and has built a reputation as one of the most relentless grapplers in the bantamweight division. Standing 66 inches tall with a 69-inch reach, Simon uses elite wrestling to control opponents and grind out decisions or late stoppages. His average fight time of 12:41 reflects his comfort in both early and championship rounds.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Nov. 8, 2025: Loss vs. Raoni Barcelos – Decision (Unanimous)
• June 14, 2025: Win vs. Cameron Smotherman – Decision (Unanimous)
• Feb. 22, 2025: Win vs. Javid Basharat – KO/TKO (Rd 1, 3:58)
• June 29, 2024: Loss vs. Vinicius Oliveira – Decision (Unanimous)
• Jan. 13, 2024: Loss vs. Mario Bautista – Decision (Unanimous)

Simon is 2-3 over his last five outings, with victories showcasing his ability to mix strikes and takedowns, and losses often coming by decision to high-level foes.

Strengths

• Takedown Prowess (42% accuracy): Simon consistently forces opponents to fight off the cage.
• Cardio & Durability: With an average fight time over 12 minutes and only 7 first-round finishes, he outlasts many rivals.
• Significant Strike Defense (61%): He avoids damage well, using head movement and level changes.

Weaknesses

• Striking Output: A 43% significant-strike accuracy suggests he lands just under half of his attempted strikes.
• Finishing Rate: Only 11% of his wins come by first-round stoppage (7 of 22), indicating fewer early fight-ending threats.
• Predictability: Opponents with disciplined takedown defense and crisp striking can neutralize his wrestling.

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Adrian Yanez: The Knockout Artist

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: United States (Galveston, TX)
• Fighting Style: Boxing-focused striker

Adrian Yanez made his UFC debut in October 2020 and quickly became known for his lightning-fast hands and heavy power. At 67 inches tall with a 70-inch reach, he utilizes a sharp jab-hook combination and explosive head movement to set up brutal finishes. His average fight time of 6:48 underlines his propensity to end fights early.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Dec. 14, 2024: Loss vs. Daniel Marcos – Decision (Split)
• May 18, 2024: Win vs. Vinicius Salvador – KO/TKO (Rd 1, 2:47)
• Oct. 14, 2023: Loss vs. Jonathan Martinez – KO/TKO (Rd 2, 2:26)
• Apr. 8, 2023: Loss vs. Rob Font – KO/TKO (Rd 1, 2:57)
• June 18, 2022: Win vs. Tony Kelley – KO/TKO (Rd 1, 3:49)

Yanez is 2-3 in his last five, but both wins came by highlight-reel knockouts, demonstrating his one-punch power. His split-decision loss to Marcos showed he can be outpointed in long fights.

Strengths

• Stopping Power: 11 KOs in 17 wins, with seven in the first round, make him a constant early threat.
• Defensive Awareness: A 55% significant-strike defense means he avoids more than half of incoming damage.
• Takedown Defense (82%): Though he never attempts takedowns, he scrambles effectively when taken down.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Offense (0% takedown accuracy): Yanez has virtually no offensive wrestling, inviting high-caliber grapplers to dictate the fight.
• Cardio Beyond Round 1: His average stoppage in under seven minutes hints at potential fatigue if the bout drags on.
• Striking Consistency: A 42% accuracy rate, similar to Simon’s, shows he must land big shots to sway rounds.

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This stylistic contrast—Simon’s wrestling and endurance versus Yanez’s explosive boxing and power—creates a compelling matchup. Simon must enforce the grappling early, while Yanez will look to end the contest before the later rounds.

Odds and Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update on March 21, 2026, Ricky Simon is firmly installed as the favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Adrian Yanez carries underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head odds:

• Caesars: Simon –150 | Yanez +125
• DraftKings: Simon –148 | Yanez +124
• BetOnline.ag: Simon –150 | Yanez +130
• BetUS: Simon –150 | Yanez +126
• FanDuel: Simon –158 | Yanez +124

Key takeaways:

• Ricky Simon (–150 to –158) is the clear favorite, implying he’s expected to win roughly 60% of the time.
• Adrian Yanez (+124 to +130) is the underdog, with an implied win probability in the mid-40% range.
• The best value for betting on Yanez is at BetOnline.ag (+130), offering the highest payout. If you’re backing Simon, DraftKings (–148) presents the smallest juice.

Line Movement and Shifts

Examining the odds history reveals some significant swings, especially on BetOnline.ag:

• Adrian Yanez (BetOnline.ag)
  • Opening odds on March 16: –140 (entered as a slight favorite)
  • Later that day: +124 (shifted into underdog territory)
  • As of March 21: +130 (underdog position solidified)

• Ricky Simon (BetOnline.ag)
  • Opening odds on March 16: +120 (underdog in early markets)
  • Later that day: –144 (flipped to favorite)
  • As of March 21: –150 (favorite status cemented)

This back-and-forth suggests heavy early betting on Simon, pushing him from underdog to favorite, while Yanez’s line has ticked upward as more money comes in on the wrestling specialist.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

If you’re sizing up your wager at $1,000, here’s what you’d collect on a winning ticket:

• Ricky Simon at –150 (Caesars, BetOnline, BetUS)
  • Profit: $667
  • Total Return: $1,667

• Adrian Yanez at +125 (Caesars)
  • Profit: $1,250
  • Total Return: $2,250

• Adrian Yanez at +130 (BetOnline.ag)
  • Profit: $1,300
  • Total Return: $2,300

Clearly, backing the underdog at +130 yields the highest upside on a $1,000 stake.

Implied Win Probabilities

• Ricky Simon: Roughly a 60% chance to win
• Adrian Yanez: Around a 44% shot to pull off the upset

While Simon’s wrestling pedigree and cardio give him the edge, Yanez’s power and precision mean the payout on the underdog is especially tempting. If you believe Simon controls the pace and forces a grind, his minus-150 tag may be worth the safety. If you’re banking on a knockout artist who can end things early, Yanez at plus-130 could be the higher-value play.

No matter which side you choose, understanding both the current odds and the way they’ve shifted can help you time your bet and maximize your return.