Winner: Arnold Allen
Confidence Score: 68Arnold Allen has consistently performed at a higher level against elite featherweight competition, maintaining a strong record (20-4) and holding a significant ranking advantage (#7 vs #12). He boasts superior takedown defense (72% vs 59%), which is critical against an aggressive, well-rounded opponent like Melquizael Costa. Allen's significant strike defense (60%) is also higher than Costa's (55%), and he has a longer average fight time, indicating his ability to handle high-paced, three-round battles against top contenders. Costa is on a strong winning streak with recent first-round finishes and has a slightly higher striking accuracy (50% vs 42%), but Allen's experience, defensive metrics, and proven ability to win against top-10 fighters give him the edge in this matchup. Historically, fighters with Allen's profile—elite defense, high-level experience, and top-10 ranking—win the majority of similar featherweight matchups, especially when facing rising contenders with less UFC experience.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Allen vs Costa can be found on the Allen vs Costa event page.
