Winner: Michael Chiesa
Confidence Score: 72Michael Chiesa matches up very well against Niko Price based on stylistic and statistical factors. Chiesa is a high-level grappler with 12 submission wins and a 48% takedown accuracy, which is significantly higher than Price's 28% takedown accuracy and 50% takedown defense. Historically, Price has struggled against strong wrestlers and grapplers, as seen in his losses to fighters who can control him on the ground. Chiesa's striking defense (58%) is also notably better than Price's (49%), which should allow him to avoid Price's unpredictable power shots. While Price is dangerous early and has 10 first-round finishes, Chiesa's ability to control the fight's pace and take it to the ground is a consistent path to victory, especially since Price has shown susceptibility to submissions and ground control. Additionally, Chiesa's recent losses have come against elite competition, while Price has been finished multiple times in recent years. In similar UFC welterweight matchups, fighters with Chiesa's grappling profile and defensive stats have won at a higher rate against aggressive, but defensively porous, brawlers like Price.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Adesanya vs Pyfer can be found on the Adesanya vs Pyfer event page.
