Winner: Rei Tsuruya
Confidence Score: 67Rei Tsuruya has a significant youth advantage at age 23 and is a rising talent with a 10-1 record, showing strong finishing ability (4 KOs, 4 submissions, 4 first-round finishes). He holds a substantial reach advantage (68" vs 62.5"), which is historically correlated with higher win rates in the flyweight division. Tsuruya's striking accuracy (53%) is much higher than Aguilar's (38%), and his takedown accuracy (37%) is also better. While Aguilar is a dangerous submission threat (7 subs) and has more UFC experience, his takedown defense (45%) is a liability against Tsuruya's aggressive, well-rounded MMA style. Recent historical data shows fighters with Tsuruya's age, reach, and finishing profile have won the majority of comparable matchups, especially when facing older, less defensively sound opponents. The main risk is Tsuruya's lower strike defense (43%), but his offensive output and physical advantages should dictate the fight.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rei Tsuruya vs Jesus Aguilar can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Song vs Figueiredo can be found on the Song vs Figueiredo event page.
