Winner: Modestas Bukauskas
Confidence Score: 65Modestas Bukauskas is a more experienced UFC fighter with a longer tenure at the top level and a higher level of competition faced. He has a slight edge in striking defense (51% vs 47%) and significantly better takedown accuracy (67% vs 35%), which is important in light heavyweight matchups. While Rodolfo Bellato has a higher significant strike accuracy (60%) and a strong takedown defense (94%), his recent record in the UFC shows several losses against solid competition, often struggling against fighters with strong defensive skills and power. Bukauskas's kickboxing style, combined with his experience and ability to mix in takedowns, gives him the edge in this stylistic matchup. Historically, fighters with Bukauskas's profile—slightly older, experienced, and with a kickboxing base—have a higher win rate in comparable light heavyweight UFC matchups, especially when facing opponents with recent inconsistent form.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Allen vs Costa can be found on the Allen vs Costa event page.
