Winner: Joshua Van
Confidence Score: 65Joshua Van enters this title bout as the reigning champion with a strong 16-2 record and is in the prime of his career at age 24. He boasts superior takedown defense (81%) and takedown accuracy (64%), which are critical against a grappling-heavy opponent like Tatsuro Taira, who has only a 45% takedown defense and relies on his ground game (8 submission wins). Van's striking defense (58%) and accuracy (57%) are also notable, giving him an edge in standup exchanges. Taira is dangerous with submissions and has recently finished elite competition, but his striking defense is lower (47%), and he has struggled against high-level wrestlers and strikers, as evidenced by his loss to Brandon Royval. Historically, fighters with Van's combination of youth, athleticism, and defensive wrestling have fared well against submission specialists with lower takedown success rates in title fights. Given Van's ability to keep the fight standing and his proven championship experience, he is the slight favorite in a competitive matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Chimaev vs Strickland can be found on the Chimaev vs Strickland event page.
