Winner: Thiago Moises
Confidence Score: 78Thiago Moises is a proven UFC veteran with significantly more high-level experience and a well-rounded skillset, especially in grappling. Moises has 7 submission wins and a higher takedown accuracy (36%) compared to Young's 30%, and Moises' submission game is a known threat at lightweight. His significant strike defense (53%) is also better than Young's (48%), and he has faced and beaten higher-caliber opposition throughout his UFC career. While Young is a promising prospect with solid striking (52% accuracy) and good takedown defense (72%), he has not yet faced anyone near Moises' level. Historically, fighters with Moises' experience, grappling edge, and durability have a strong win rate over less-tested, primarily striking-based newcomers. Moises' average fight time is also lower, indicating a greater finishing ability. The main risk is Moises' sometimes suspect striking defense and Young's KO power, but the stylistic and experience advantages for Moises are clear in this matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Burns vs Malott can be found on the Burns vs Malott event page.
