Winner: Rafa Garcia
Confidence Score: 62Rafa Garcia has a more well-rounded grappling and defensive profile compared to Alexander Hernandez. Garcia's takedown accuracy (44%) and defense (76%) are both superior to Hernandez's (36% and 73% respectively), and he has a higher significant strike accuracy (46% vs 41%) and defense (61% vs 59%). Historically, fighters with Garcia's profile—strong wrestling base, high takedown defense, and efficient striking—tend to outperform aggressive but defensively vulnerable strikers like Hernandez, especially when the striker's finishing rate drops outside the first round. Garcia's average fight time is also longer, suggesting better cardio and composure in later rounds, which is a key factor in lightweight bouts. Hernandez has more knockout power, but Garcia's durability and grappling edge should allow him to neutralize those bursts and control the fight, especially if it goes to the ground or deep into the fight.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Sterling vs Zalal can be found on the Sterling vs Zalal event page.
