Winner: Marcus Buchecha
Confidence Score: 65Marcus Buchecha is an elite heavyweight grappler with a world-class submission game, as evidenced by his 4 submission wins in 5 victories and a 100% first-round finish rate. Ryan Spann is a dangerous finisher with more overall MMA experience and a high submission win rate himself, but he has shown defensive gaps, particularly in his takedown defense (52%) and significant strike defense (43%). Buchecha's takedown accuracy is low (17%), but his ability to control and finish on the ground is elite, and heavyweights with elite BJJ have historically had strong success against fighters with moderate takedown defense and lower strike defense. Spann's susceptibility to early finishes and his history of being caught in scrambles or rocked by heavy hitters or grapplers makes this a tough stylistic matchup for him. While Spann is dangerous if he can keep it standing, the edge goes to Buchecha due to the stylistic grappling advantage and the heavyweight division's tendency to favor elite specialists in new matchups.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Sterling vs Zalal can be found on the Sterling vs Zalal event page.
