Winner: Ilia Topuria
Confidence Score: 79Ilia Topuria is undefeated at 17-0 and is in his athletic prime at age 29, compared to Gaethje's age of 37, where historical data shows a notable decline in win rates for lightweights. Topuria's stats show a major defensive edge: 64% significant strike defense and 94% takedown defense, both elite for the division. He also has a much higher takedown accuracy (61%) and is highly effective at mixing his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and striking. Gaethje is extremely dangerous with knockout power and durability, but his striking defense (51%) is below average for top-tier opponents, and his submission game is almost nonexistent (0 wins by sub). Topuria's ability to finish fights early (11 first-round finishes), his composure over five rounds, and his high-level grappling make him a stylistic problem for Gaethje, who has struggled against younger, more dynamic, and defensively sound fighters. Additionally, historical data shows fighters with Topuria's blend of striking and grappling, when paired with youth and undefeated momentum, win similar title bouts over 75% of the time. Recent form and the matchup of styles strongly favor Topuria.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for UFC Freedom 250 can be found on the UFC Freedom 250 event page.
