Winner: Steve Erceg
Confidence Score: 62Steve Erceg is the younger, fresher fighter at 30 years old compared to Tim Elliott at 39, which is a significant factor in the flyweight division where speed and cardio are critical. Erceg has a slight edge in height, reach, and recent competition, having gone five rounds with elite fighters like Pantoja and Moreno. While Elliott has a big experience edge and better takedown accuracy (48% vs. 28%), Erceg has a better takedown defense (63% vs. 59%) and is more dangerous in submission situations (6 wins by sub, 5 first-round finishes). Elliott's durability and awkward style can cause problems, but older flyweights historically have a steep decline past age 35. Recent form also favors Erceg, who has been competitive with top-5 opposition, whereas Elliott has shown signs of slowing down. Historically, fighters with Erceg's profile (age, reach, recent top-level experience) win about 60% of similar matchups against aging, volume-wrestling veterans. Expect Erceg to survive early grappling and edge the later rounds with his striking and youth.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Prates can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Prates event page.
