Winner: Fares Ziam
Confidence Score: 68Fares Ziam has a clear edge in experience and technical proficiency at the UFC level. He holds a significant advantage in striking accuracy (53% vs. 46%) and striking defense (65% vs. 48%), which is notable for lightweight matchups where technical striking often determines outcomes. Both fighters have similar takedown defense (71%), but Ziam is much more effective offensively with his takedowns (41% accuracy vs. 22%). Ziam’s average fight time is much higher (13:01 vs. 6:44), showing he has the cardio and composure for longer, tougher fights, while Nolan is more of a fast starter but has not been tested against higher-ranked opposition. Ziam is currently ranked and has shown an ability to win decisions against established UFC lightweights, while Nolan is still new to the division and was recently knocked out quickly by Nikolas Motta, exposing defensive vulnerabilities. Historically, fighters with Ziam's profile (longer reach, higher accuracy, UFC experience, and ranking) win these types of matchups at a high rate, especially when facing less-tested prospects. Unless Nolan lands early, Ziam’s technical edge and experience should carry him to victory, most likely by decision or late finish.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Muhammad vs Bonfim can be found on the Muhammad vs Bonfim event page.
